There is a clear signal in the market lately: the US dollar continues to weaken, driven by rising expectations of a rate cut in December.

This round of expectations is not unfounded. Several factors have converged—the ADP employment data underperformed market forecasts, inflation data for the services sector show pressures are easing, and there's a rumor that Trump may nominate the relatively dovish Hassett as Federal Reserve Chair. Taken together, these developments have led the market to bet that the "liquidity tap" may loosen.

For crypto assets, this creates a structurally favorable environment. Rising expectations of rate cuts combined with a weaker dollar typically enhance the appeal of assets like Bitcoin as alternative stores of value. Risk appetite in the market is also quietly recovering.

However, one detail is worth noting: after last night's data, the probability of a rate cut briefly jumped from 85% to 88.8%, but has now stabilized back around 85%. This shows that while the market is optimistic, it hasn't fallen into irrational exuberance and retains a degree of caution. This is actually a healthier state—not a signal of a blind surge, but an indication that sentiment is supported and expectations are well-founded.

For retail investors, here are some operational strategies to consider:

**Don’t rush to chase the rally**: Rising expectations can certainly provide a floor or even push the market higher, but the process will inevitably involve volatility and pullbacks. Avoid chasing the market during sharp upticks; pullbacks may actually offer better entry opportunities.

**Keep a close eye on next week’s FOMC meeting**: All expectations will ultimately be confirmed or disproven at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. That’s the real “reveal” moment—stay rational until policy decisions are announced.

**Maintain position flexibility**: Even if market sentiment is improving, don’t go all in. Keep some cash or stablecoins on hand to deal with potential disappointments or sharp short-term swings.

Overall, the macro environment is improving, but operating in the market requires a sense of timing and patience. Expectation is one thing; actual policy implementation is another.