#美联储重启降息步伐 On December 9, the precious metals and commodities markets showed a diverging trend.

Regarding interest rate expectations, investors are quite optimistic about a Fed rate cut next month—market pricing shows the probability has reached 85.2%. The anticipation of an easing policy has increased the appeal of safe-haven assets. However, from a capital flows perspective, the situation is somewhat nuanced: the world's largest gold ETF saw a single-day outflow of 1.14 tons, and the silver ETF reduced holdings by 36.67 tons during the same period. This may reflect some institutional investors selling at higher prices.

In terms of commodity prices, gold edged down 0.15%, silver saw a larger decline of 0.25%, while copper rose slightly by 0.09%, indicating that industrial metals are relatively more resilient. Notably, the Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a market risk warning, reminding participants to pay attention to potential risks. In addition, Russia plans to impose restrictions on gold bar exports starting in 2026, a policy change that could have long-term effects on the global gold supply landscape.

In related markets, the US Dollar Index edged up 0.13%. In US equities, the Nasdaq retreated slightly by 0.14%, while China's A-shares remained relatively strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.54%, demonstrating divergent trends across different markets.