A noteworthy signal came on December 4: the US Dollar Index has fallen for two consecutive days, hitting a five-week low. What's behind this? Nonfarm payroll data fell short of expectations, inflationary pressures are showing signs of easing, and more importantly, Trump's preferred candidate for Fed chair is clearly leaning toward dovish policies. Now, the market has priced in an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut next week—it's almost an open secret at this point.

What does this mean for the crypto market? The logic is pretty straightforward: the expectation of a weaker dollar combined with a potential rate cut lowers the opportunity cost of capital. As yields on traditional safe-haven assets decline, liquidity naturally flows into high-volatility, high-potential-return sectors. In the short term, crypto assets are likely to benefit from this sentiment recovery.

However, a word of caution—don’t mistake expectations for reality. If you’re already holding positions, you can patiently wait for the market sentiment to truly materialize; if you’re looking to enter, don’t rush to go all in. Building positions in mainstream coins in batches is safer, and it’s best to avoid low-liquidity small-cap coins at this time. Rate cuts are indeed a positive factor, but the market is never short of plot twists.

The real opportunities belong to those who can stay clear-headed amid the noise. The macro environment is warming up, but make sure spring has really arrived—not just that the heater’s been turned up.