Next, closely monitor Powell's speech at the time of the Fed rate cut and the Bank of Japan's rate hike.

Right now, the entire market is focused on the Fed's rate cut, but in reality, this round of positive news has already been priced in. $BTC rebounded from 80,000 to 94,000 largely due to speculation around the Fed's rate cut. The next key focus should be on the yen rate hike next week. Many people have forgotten that in 1998, after Japan ended its ultra-low interest rates, the Asian financial system was drained; Indonesia and Thailand couldn't hold up, and South Korea nearly went bankrupt.
At that time, the Fed made a symbolic 25BP rate cut, but then at the beginning of October, the yen suddenly soared, US tech stocks crashed, and the Fed was forced to slash rates by 75BP in one move to stabilize the market, after which US stocks saw a sharp rebound.
The reason why a yen rate hike is bearish for global capital markets is simple: everyone globally was borrowing yen to buy US Treasuries. If the yen suddenly strengthens, everyone is forced to sell US Treasuries for yen, causing US Treasury yields to spike, and all high-risk assets—tech stocks, BTC—get hit. This logic still holds true today.
Recent contract position data is also strange; whether it's CFTC or CME, positions are piling up, which looks like they're waiting to cash in on tomorrow night's rate cut. The real key is next week: yen rate hike + CPI. If the CPI also comes in unexpectedly high, that means rate hikes and inflation are hitting the market from both sides, and volatility could be even greater.
Next, pay attention to Powell's speech on the Fed rate cut. If it's a dovish cut, the market could rebound a bit more; if it's a hawkish cut ➕ and the Bank of Japan raises rates, then the market will likely get even tougher.