Bitcoin Faces a Critical Turning Point as Analysts Split on Whether the Cycle Is Changing

Source: ETHNews Original Title: Bitcoin Faces a Critical Turning Point as Analysts Split on Whether the Cycle Is Changing Original Link: https://www.ethnews.com/bitcoin-faces-a-critical-turning-point-as-analysts-split-on-whether-the-cycle-is-changing/ Bitcoin enters a decisive phase this week, with major analysts highlighting conflicting signals that cut across momentum, ETF flows, macro correlations, and long-term cycle behavior.

Recently the price has bounced above $92,000, but market conviction remained weak and pushed it back to $90,000, leaving traders debating whether BTC is preparing for renewed expansion or edging toward a deeper reset.

A Market Questioning the Old Cycle Rules

Lark Davis argues that the familiar four-year cycle may no longer define Bitcoin’s trajectory. He points to gold’s eight-year bull run after its ETF launch as a historical parallel, and insists Bitcoin’s ETF era appears even more transformative.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have generated unprecedented inflows, outpacing the gold ETF’s early adoption and pushing BTC deep into institutional portfolios. Wealth funds, corporate treasuries, and even sovereign entities are accelerating exposure. Davis’ core message: Wall Street is no longer nibbling at Bitcoin, it is opening the gates.

The 4-year cycle is dead.

Think about this:

When Gold got an ETF, it went on an 8-year bull run

The spot Bitcoin ETF is wayyyyy more successful than the gold ETF

And the adoption of Bitcoin by institutions, wealth funds, and nation-states is much faster than gold

It’s not…

This perspective feeds into a growing belief that macro-driven accumulation, rather than halving-driven rhythm, could dominate Bitcoin’s next chapter.

BTC/Gold Ratio Hits a Historic Zone Linked to Prior Cycle Bottoms

A separate data point from AshCrypto adds weight to the idea of a macro inflection. The BTC/Gold 2-week RSI has fallen to its lowest level since 2022, reaching this extreme only three times in the last eleven years: in 2014, 2022, and now 2025.

BTC/Gold 2W RSI has reached its lowest level since 2022.

In the past 11 years, BTC/Gold 2W RSI has only reached this low thrice.

2014, 2022 and now 2025.

The last 2 instances marked the cycle bottom.

Will it happen again?

The previous two dips aligned with major cycle bottoms. Whether that setup repeats remains uncertain, but the rarity of this signal forces attention. Bitcoin appears historically undervalued relative to gold at a moment when institutional inflows continue to transform its market structure.

ETF Outflows Reflect Hesitation, Not Accumulation

Countering the bullish narrative, Ali’s analysis highlights a persistent lack of buying from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Last week alone, 1,160 BTC exited these products, totaling roughly $105 million in outflows.

No signs of accumulation yet from Bitcoin ETFs!

Last week saw 1,160 BTC in outflows, about $105 million.

The timing is notable: BTC attempted a recovery, but ETF demand softened simultaneously, suggesting large players are hedging, rotating defensively, or waiting for clarity rather than building fresh exposure.

This aligns with Glassnode’s observation that momentum has improved while key positioning metrics, Spot CVD and open interest, have weakened. Traders are participating, but conviction has not fully returned.

Support Band Approaches as Market Awaits a Reset

DaanCryptoTraders underscores the technical picture: Bitcoin is stalling as its bull market support band slowly converges with price. Historically, BTC almost always revisits this zone, even during strong uptrends.

BTC Stalling while its bull market support band is closing in.

It’s about a ~14% move from here to the bottom of the band. Usually you’d at least see a retest of the band, even in a larger timeframe bearish scenario.

Good to keep an eye on when that happens. This could of…

The band sits roughly 14% below current levels. A retest would not break the broader bullish structure, but it could flush out leverage, reset sentiment, and offer a more sustainable base for trend continuation. Timing remains unclear, and the eventual retest may occur at different price levels depending on how Bitcoin trades in the coming weeks.

Mixed On-Chain Signals Paint a Cautious, Transitional Market

Glassnode’s latest Market Pulse highlights the same tension:

• Realized cap change shows modest improvement but lacks strong inflows.
• Realized profit/loss ratio suggests sentiment recovery but not full-scale optimism.
• Volatility spreads remain compressed, often a precursor to larger directional moves.
• Options delta skew shows demand for downside protection.

Together, these metrics portray a market preparing for a decisive move, but not committed to its direction.

What Comes Next?

Bitcoin sits in a rare moment where narratives collide:

• Institutional adoption accelerates
• ETF behavior turns cautious
• Macro correlations flash bottom-like signals
• Long-term technical structure approaches a key support test
• On-chain data shows improving momentum but fading bullish positioning

The next phase likely hinges on how ETFs behave once price approaches the support band or volatility expands. Sustained outflows would reinforce the need for deeper consolidation. Renewed inflows could flip sentiment quickly and reestablish upward pressure.

For now, Bitcoin moves through a crossroads defined by uncertainty, but also by opportunity, as analysts agree the coming weeks may reveal whether BTC is resetting or preparing for the next expansion leg.