#数字货币市场洞察 Will there really be massive monetary easing if the Fed gets a new chair? Traders have already given their answer with real action—No.

According to Reuters analysis, although Powell’s term as Fed chair doesn’t expire until next May, rumors that he will be replaced by Trump’s economic advisor Hassett have been swirling in the market for some time. Trump has indeed hinted that the new administration would pursue a more accommodative monetary policy, making it sound like sharp rate cuts are a sure thing.

But here’s the interesting part—the interest rate futures market isn’t buying it at all. Just look at how the market is pricing things: by the end of next year, traders are expecting a total rate cut of 75 basis points, which is three cuts of 25 basis points each. More importantly, two of those cuts are likely to happen before Powell steps down, and by the time Hassett officially takes over in the second half of 2026, only the last cut might remain.

The logic behind this is simple—by then, inflation will still be hovering around 3%, and by the time the new chair takes office, real interest rates will already be near zero. In other words, the monetary policy environment will already be sufficiently loose, so there’s no need for a radical policy shift. Market prices never lie—they reflect the true thinking of major capital.