JPMorgan's Bold Prediction: Bitcoin Expected to Surge to $170,000 in the Next Year, Potential Upside Exceeds 80%

JPMorgan has reiterated its bullish stance on Bitcoin in its latest report, predicting a theoretical price of nearly $170,000 for Bitcoin in the next 6 to 12 months based on a valuation model similar to gold.

This means that, based on Bitcoin’s price of approximately $91,114 on December 8, the potential upside exceeds 84%.

01 Market Update: Bitcoin Strongly Rebounds, Rises Above $91,000

As of December 8, 2025, the global cryptocurrency market saw a significant rebound. According to multiple market data sources, Bitcoin successfully broke through the important psychological threshold of $91,000 on the day.

Specifically, Bitcoin’s price briefly dipped to $89,326 on the morning of December 8, but quickly recovered and stabilized above $91,000. Over the past 24 hours, it rose about 1.86%.

This rebound was not an isolated event. Other major tokens such as Ethereum (ETH) and Binance Coin (BNB) also generally rose in the past 24 hours, with gains ranging from 0.81% to 2%. Market analysts widely attribute this surge to rising expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will soon cut interest rates.

Currently, the probability of the Fed deciding to cut rates at its December policy meeting has risen to 88.4%.

02 Core Forecast: Why Does JPMorgan Stick to the $170,000 Target?

JPMorgan’s optimistic forecast is not unfounded. The team led by strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou detailed a core logic in its report: Bitcoin’s trading pattern will resemble that of gold.

By using a “volatility-adjusted Bitcoin-to-gold comparison metric,” the team calculated that Bitcoin’s theoretical price approaches $170,000. The forecasted timeframe is within the next 6 to 12 months.

The basis for this view is that Bitcoin, as an asset, is increasingly taking on the role of a “digital gold” safe haven. JPMorgan notes that this characteristic became particularly apparent in April 2025.

At that time, concerns over global tariff issues triggered a historic sell-off in the US stock market, while funds flowed into cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, confirming its different trajectory from traditional risk assets.

03 Key Supports: How Do Two Short-term Factors Affect Market Sentiment?

Though optimistic in the long term, JPMorgan also keenly identified two key short-term factors that could impact Bitcoin prices, offering relatively positive analysis.

MicroStrategy’s Selling Risk Is Manageable

There were market concerns that MicroStrategy (stock code: MSTR), the world’s largest publicly traded company holding Bitcoin, might be forced to sell its Bitcoin holdings due to financial pressures.

The company’s CEO had stated that if its market net asset value multiple fell below 1, it might consider selling Bitcoin. However, JPMorgan’s analysis points out that the situation may not be so dire.

MicroStrategy recently successfully raised $1.4 billion in cash reserves. JPMorgan estimates that this amount is enough to cover its dividends and interest expenses for about the next two years, greatly reducing the likelihood of forced Bitcoin sales.

As of the report’s release, MicroStrategy’s website showed its market net asset value multiple at around 1.1, still above the warning threshold.

Asymmetry in MSCI Index Decisions

Another focus is the decision of international index provider MSCI. MSCI is expected to review in January 2026 whether to remove companies with high digital asset exposure (such as MicroStrategy) from its indices.

JPMorgan previously estimated that if MicroStrategy were removed, it could trigger about $2.8 billion in passive outflows from its stock.

However, JPMorgan believes the market’s pessimism may have already partially priced in this risk. The report further notes that if MSCI ultimately decides not to remove MicroStrategy, both the company’s stock and Bitcoin itself could see a strong rebound, potentially pushing cryptocurrency prices back to historical highs.

04 In-Depth Analysis: Signals from Production Costs and Institutional Moves

Beyond JPMorgan’s report, recent market information also provides important perspectives for understanding the current Bitcoin landscape.

JPMorgan estimates in its report that Bitcoin’s current production cost (mainly affected by mining difficulty and electricity costs) has dropped from $94,000 in mid-November to about $90,000. The bank believes this $90,000 level forms a “soft floor” for Bitcoin prices and provides support.

Even more notable are the observations from traditional financial giants. The CEO of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, Larry Fink, recently revealed that several global sovereign wealth funds are taking advantage of the recent price pullback to increase their Bitcoin positions.

Fink pointed out that these long-term investors are gradually increasing their holdings at the $120,000 and $100,000 Bitcoin price levels, and have been buying heavily around $80,000. This is seen as a strong signal that Bitcoin is gaining recognition from the world’s top and most prudent long-term institutional investors.

05 Historical Comparison: What Stage Is the Current Correction In?

Facing the correction from the historical high of about $126,000 in October 2025, many investors have concerns. Historical data shows that after a bull market, Bitcoin typically retraces 70% to 80% from its peak during the “crypto winter.”

In this cycle, Bitcoin’s maximum drawdown from its peak is about 36%, which is still far from the extremes of historical cases. This also explains why there is still some level of market apprehension.

Lucy Gazmararian, founder of Token Bay Capital, believes that the market experienced one of the largest leverage liquidations in crypto history in October, which coincided with concerns about the bull cycle peaking, significantly heightening market fear.

JPMorgan’s $170,000 forecast for Bitcoin is based on its judgment of the nature of this correction—that it is more likely a deep pullback within a bull market, rather than the start of a new bear cycle.

Outlook

As of December 8, Bitcoin’s production cost support level is around $90,000, and global sovereign wealth funds are reportedly buying heavily in this price range.

JPMorgan’s forecast of up to $170,000 for Bitcoin is closely linked to its gold valuation model. Crypto analytics firm Arkham Intel data shows that MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings fell from a peak of about 484,000 coins at the beginning of November to about 437,000.

The decision by international index provider MSCI in January next year on whether to remove companies with heavy Bitcoin exposure from its indices will be the next key catalyst for the market.