The Fed has already cut rates twice this year, so what happened? Not only did Bitcoin fail to rise, but it actually dropped pretty badly both times.

On September 17, BTC slid from $117,900 to $108,620, a drop of nearly 8%. Even worse was the second rate cut on October 29, when it plunged directly from $113,640 to $80,600—a 28.6% drop. Far from being positive news, it was more like a “bearish warning.”

Right now, the whole market is watching the upcoming rate decision in the early hours of December 11. The CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of a rate cut approaching 90%, and most major investment banks are betting on a 25 basis point cut. But here’s the problem: the last two rate cuts clearly injected liquidity, so why did the crypto market fall even harder? Simply put, the market is more worried about inflationary pressure and uncertainty over the economic outlook—the “benefit” of a rate cut just isn’t enough to calm the panic.

To make matters worse, there’s no unified stance within the Fed itself. The doves are eager to rescue employment data, while the hawks are worried about inflation making a comeback. Plus, the market may have already priced in the rate cut expectation, so there’s even a chance we’ll see a “hawkish cut”—where rates are cut, but the accompanying language and policy signals are actually tighter.

So, around this decision, BTC is very likely to stay volatile. Lock in profits if you need to, set stop losses where necessary, and don’t just focus on the rate cut and assume everything is safe.