Although the market was quiet this weekend, the overall sentiment was decent, with BTC steadily hovering around $90,000.

Right now, everyone’s focus is on the December 11th Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. Rate cut? There’s an 88.4% chance, so it’s almost a given. But what really matters is how the dot plot is drawn and what Powell actually says—those are the real keys that will determine short-term market trends and everyone’s sentiment.

Honestly, this situation feels a bit like the end of 2024. Back then, it was right before Christmas, the market was hyped up on rate cut expectations, plus Trump won the election, and everyone was gearing up to celebrate. But what happened? As soon as Powell spoke, he poured cold water on the party and the market crashed instantly.

That year’s dot plot suggested only two rate cuts in 2025, but in reality, there were four cuts this year. So if Powell pulls the same move again and the dot plot for 2026 is on the conservative side, the market will definitely shake in the short term.

Looking further ahead, next year Trump will be facing the midterm elections, so keeping growth, employment, and the stock market stable will be a must for him. Plus, the Fed chair’s term ends in 2026, and he’ll likely pick someone who will cooperate. Even if the new chair isn’t aggressive with rate cuts, they’ll probably align with Trump’s approach and truly open up the rate cut channel.

On-chain data shows BTC turnover is going down, meaning most people are on the sidelines and selling pressure is low. MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor has released another Bitcoin tracker, hinting that they’re still scooping up coins. Currently B...