A couple of days ago, there was news that the Bank of Japan might raise interest rates to 0.75% in December, and quite a few friends have been asking how reliable this is. I checked various sources, and it’s very likely to be true—most of the market is moving based on this expectation.

Here’s why I think it’s pretty credible:
Legacy media outlets like Reuters, Bloomberg, and The Japan Times are all following up on the story, and institutions like Mitsubishi UFJ and Commerzbank are sending similar reminders to their clients. More importantly, the yen’s exchange rate and government bond yields have already started to move—yields are going up and the yen has strengthened a bit. Looking at the swap market and OIS instruments, the implied probability is hovering around 50%-80%, which suggests traders are positioning themselves ahead of time.

Of course, it’s not set in stone. Japan’s inflation data has been a bit erratic recently, and if the CPI drops again, the central bank might hesitate. Plus, the global economy is already unstable, so if they really do hike rates, it could drag down Japan’s own recovery.

For those of us in crypto, this is something to watch closely. If Japanese capital flows back home in pursuit of higher rates, liquidity could tighten and risk assets like Bitcoin and SOL might come under pressure. On the other hand, if the rate hike is already mostly priced in, when it actually happens there could be a “sell the rumor, buy the news” effect, depending on market sentiment at the time.