#数字货币市场洞察 The main focus of the Fed this week isn’t whether or not they’ll cut rates, but how that $6.6 trillion balance sheet will move—that’s the lifeline of the crypto market.

Let’s start with the numbers: the Fed’s balance sheet has already shrunk from a peak of $9 trillion down to $6.6 trillion, a $2.4 trillion reduction. Sounds pretty aggressive, right? But here’s the problem—the overnight funding market is starting to tighten, and liquidity feels like it’s being choked off. What’s even more critical is the $6.5 trillion in maturing Treasuries, ticking like a time bomb. If the Fed mishandles this, the market could seize up entirely.

What does this have to do with Bitcoin? Everything. Crypto assets fundamentally feed off “liquidity”—they soar when liquidity is abundant and plunge when it dries up. So retail investors shouldn’t be fixated on candlestick charts, but on which way the Fed is turning the liquidity tap.

Remember these two key signals: if the Fed is forced to restart balance sheet expansion ( inject liquidity ), the crypto market will most likely enter a new cycle; if they keep pushing on with tightening, expect increased volatility in the short term and prepare to play defense.

To put it simply, there’s one survival rule in a policy-driven market—follow the flow of liquidity, not the mood swings. When the market’s up, everyone’s a genius; when it’s down, you find out who’s swimming naked. Be greedy when others are fearful, be cautious when others are greedy—it’s an old saying, but it always works.

At this point, figuring out the liquidity turning point is more important than guessing price swings. Once you’ve grasped the core logic, short-term volatility won’t matter much at all.