Last week I mentioned that there was resistance around 94,000, and sure enough, the price started to pull back as soon as it hit that area, dropping as low as 87,700. The most important thing this week is to closely watch the Fed’s interest rate meeting, as well as any moves from Japan regarding rate hikes—these two factors will directly determine BTC’s next move.

Let’s start with the bad news on the macro front. The probability of the Bank of Japan raising rates by 25 basis points in December has now surged to 91%, up from just 58% at the end of last month. The problem here is that once the rate hike is implemented, global carry trades could reverse, causing funds to be pulled out of risk assets, with cryptocurrencies bearing the brunt. On top of that, regulatory activity has picked up recently, and there were significant net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs last month—just today, BlackRock has already seen an outflow of $32.49 million.

With all these negative factors stacking up, even if the Fed does cut rates by 25 basis points on the 11th, it probably won’t be enough to stop the downward trend. I even think that after the rate cut announcement, we could see another sharp dip, so everyone should be mentally prepared.

From a technical perspective, the early session saw a rebound to around 91,700, which happens to coincide with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. After the death cross signal appeared on the daily chart, the price has been moving downward, and the 94,000 benchmark line failed to break last week. The price is still stuck inside the downtrend line, and the rebound this morning reversed right at that trend line.

For those who haven’t entered yet, keep focusing on shorting at the 91,700 and 94,000 levels, with initial targets at 89,000 (bottom of the Ichimoku Cloud) and 87,500 (50% Fibonacci retracement). Once those targets are hit, I recommend reducing positions to lock in profits, then aiming for the area around 78,400. There’s a chance BTC could touch the 70,000 range this week. As for bottom-fishing, it’s still not the right time—wait a bit longer.

What do you all think of this trend? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.