Don’t rush to check your phone when you wake up this morning—something big just happened with ETH.

An on-chain data bombshell: a Bitcoin ancient whale who’s been holding for 8 years suddenly bought $160 million worth of Ethereum last night, and went straight in with 5x leverage. Who is this guy? In the early days, he held onto 50,000 BTC without letting go, and his recent moves have been textbook-perfect—a few hours before October’s plunge, he shorted precisely and pocketed nearly $100 million. When a player of this caliber makes a move, it’s either because he’s sensed a shift in the wind, or he’s digging a trap.

But here’s the weird part: the technicals aren’t cooperating at all.

Open up the 4-hour K-line chart: the MACD lines just formed a death cross, which usually signals short-term momentum exhaustion. The current price is stuck at $3,072, with $3,200 as the first major hurdle above, and even heavier resistance at $3,270; below, $2,900 is the support level, and $2,750 is the ultimate defense line.

Right now, the situation is split—this whale is propping up the price with real money, but the technical indicators are flashing red. Volume data does show that funds are quietly accumulating, and chips are concentrating, but a death cross isn’t something to take lightly; there’s a decent chance of a short-term pullback to $2,900.

So here’s the question: will Ethereum break through $3,200 and keep climbing, or will it first pull back to $2,900? What’s the logic behind the whale’s decision? Does he know something in advance, or is he simply betting on a technical rebound?

The key is in this 128-point range right in front of us. Bulls and bears are arm-wrestling at this level, and the next 24 hours will tell us the answer.