2025-12-08 01:20:53

The market's expectations for next week's Federal Reserve meeting are becoming increasingly clear.

According to the latest data from CME's "FedWatch" tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has soared to 86.2%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate is only 13.8%. It seems this rate cut is pretty much a done deal.

Mark your calendar: At 3:00 a.m. Beijing time on December 11, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision. The market generally expects the benchmark rate to be lowered from the current 4.00% to 3.75%. Half an hour later, at 3:30 a.m., Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference—which is the real highlight, as his wording often has a bigger impact on the market than the rate cut itself.

For the crypto market, how will this round of easing affect the performance of BTC and other major assets? Grab your popcorn, we’ll find out next week.

BTC-0,55%

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GasFeeNightmare

· 2025-12-11 01:07

86.2% chance? Oh my, Powell is really about to take action this time. The crypto market should be taking off now, right?

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IntrovertMetaverse

· 2025-12-10 13:39

86.2% probability says Powell is definitely going to cut rates, but the real drama depends on what he says... This guy's one sentence can turn the crypto world upside down.

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DecentralizedElder

· 2025-12-09 00:10

An 86.2% probability should have already been reflected in the coin price, right? The question is whether Powell will make hawkish remarks to stir things up.

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ColdWalletAnxiety

· 2025-12-08 01:51

An 86.2% probability, feels like this rate cut is pretty much a sure thing... Just worried that Powell might say something unexpected again. Whether BTC will take off directly still depends on what he says in the early hours of the 12th... Set your alarm.

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MoonRocketTeam

· 2025-12-08 01:46

86.2% probability? Fellow astronauts, this is already fueling up BTC. Our launch window is at 3 AM on the 11th, and Powell’s mouth is the real booster. --- A rate cut is pretty much set in stone, but what I care more about is whether Powell will say something that scares the market out of orbit… That half-hour press conference often determines the dopamine trend for the whole week. --- If we get a 25 basis point cut and BTC still doesn’t take off like a rocket, I suspect there’s some resistance ahead that I haven’t seen. DYOR is king, everyone. --- Set an alarm for 3 AM on December 11th. This easing cycle will either take us to the moon, or… burn up completely. There’s no middle ground. --- Wait, 86.2%? What if the remaining 13.8% actually happens? How wrecked will BTC get then?

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ProofOfNothing

· 2025-12-08 01:38

An 86.2% probability means it's almost a sure thing. The key is still waiting for Powell to speak—one sentence from him can change everything.

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NotSatoshi

· 2025-12-08 01:29

With an 86.2% probability, it would be outrageous if Powell doesn’t cut rates this time. Let’s see how he explains his way out of it then.

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FreeMinter

· 2025-12-08 01:27

86.2%, Powell is really going to inject liquidity this time, the crypto market is about to take off, right? Rate cuts are coming but don’t get excited too soon, the key is still what Powell says. The real test is at 3:30, even a single word difference in the statement can tank the market. Wait, does an easing cycle mean BTC is going to surge? Is it still okay for me to get in now? A done deal is a done deal, but I’m just worried they’ll pull some trick again. Can a 25bp rate cut really save the market? Feels like it’s all been bearish news lately.

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