#比特币对比代币化黄金 Weekly Close Approaching on December 7: Can BTC Hold Its Key Moving Average Support?

It's been a while since we last discussed Bitcoin's price action. Looking back at the wave in mid-November, it basically aligned with my previous forecast—the predicted high for this cycle was around $128,000, and the actual price peaked at nearly $127,000, with a margin of error just over $1,000. Overall, the forecast held up well. For those who've been following my analysis since the end of April, you probably managed to exit at the highs quite effectively this round.

This week, Bitcoin has been locked in a tug-of-war between $94,000 and $86,000, with clear indecision between bulls and bears. For bulls to reverse the current weak trend, they first need to reclaim the $92,000 naked K-line support, followed by the EMA50 on the weekly chart—only by firmly holding above this level is there any chance of continuing the bull run. Conversely, if the real body of the K-line breaks below the EMA100, be prepared for a drop below the $80,000 level and a test of the $77,500 psychological support zone.

Looking at the attached indicators, MACD bearish momentum seems to be narrowing for now, but the key is whether a bullish candle can be printed tomorrow. If the weekly chart closes bullish, there's a high probability of a rebound next week, with another attempt at $94,000. Remember after that recent black swan event, I mentioned in the community that $BTC was filling the gap? Once the gap is filled, if there isn’t a large influx of capital or a significant positive catalyst, the price will likely continue to fluctuate downward.

To put it plainly, the entire market is currently in a weak state, and we don't see any clear bullish divergence patterns on the short- or mid-term timeframes. To look for opportunities in the big cycle, we'll need to wait for the right timing—bull runs are long and bear markets are short, that's the pattern, and everything has its rhythm. If you look back at the roadmap I provided in April, you'll see that many key turning points were already hinted at.