#ETH走势分析 There are 4 days left until this week's key moment, the probability of a rate cut has already soared above 90%, and the market has basically priced in a 25 basis point cut.

Let's look at a few possibilities:

25 basis point rate cut (99% probability) — This is the mainstream scenario. After it's implemented, the market will most likely move sideways or see a slight increase, but if Powell's speech is hawkish, there could be a short-term pullback. Overall, volatility shouldn't be too wild.

50 basis point rate cut (1% probability) — This would be a total surprise. The market hasn't priced this in at all. If there really is a 50 basis point cut, the market will absolutely skyrocket.

No rate cut — This would be a major surprise. If expectations aren't met, the market will tank, and even the previous support levels might not hold.

25 basis point rate hike — This would be a pure black swan event. The whole market would probably crash, but the chance of this happening is basically zero.

My view? It's almost certainly going to be 25 basis points; 50 basis points just exists in theory. The market is already prepared—now it's all about what Powell actually says when it happens. The price movements of mainstream coins like ETH will follow this rhythm as well.