a16z warns: Bitcoin quantum-resistant upgrade is imminent, hundreds of billions of dollars at risk

[BlockBeats] On December 7, a16z published an article discussing an urgent topic: Can Bitcoin withstand attacks from quantum computers? The conclusion is rather pessimistic—if we don’t upgrade to quantum-resistant signatures now, it might be too late in the future.

What’s the problem? Two major issues. The first is efficiency dragging things down. Bitcoin upgrades are notoriously slow; if the community can’t reach consensus, hard forks are likely, and history shows just how tough these disputes can be. Now, with quantum-resistant proposals on the table, simply reaching consensus could take ages.

The second issue is even more critical—migration relies on individual initiative. Unlike some chains that can enforce upgrades, Bitcoin holders must manually move their coins to new addresses. Here’s the problem: what about wallets that have been dormant for years? Satoshi’s coins, lost-key coins, coins whose owners have passed away… all of these are exposed to quantum threats.

a16z estimates that there are several million high-risk bitcoins like this, worth hundreds of billions of dollars at current prices. If quantum computers really make a breakthrough, this money could vanish overnight. The window of time is closing, and it’s time to pay off this technical debt.