To be honest, the current market is really a bit crazy.

Quantitative tightening hasn’t even officially ended yet, there’s not even a hint of rate cuts, and Bitcoin has already skyrocketed from $90,000 to $95,000. You think this is a market awakening? In reality, it’s just a bunch of whales positioning early, hyping up the “rate cut expectations” narrative. Retail investors are getting FOMO and piling in.

Let me use an imperfect analogy: The boss casually mentions in a meeting, “We might get bonuses at the end of the year,” and the next day, employees are already researching luxury car models. But what happens? The boss hasn’t paid out a dime, and everyone’s consumer loans have already been approved.

Looking back at historical trends, there’s often a vacuum period between the end of QT and the actual start of QE—during this time, it’s more common for the market to drop rather than rise. With this kind of premature excitement now, when real news finally hits, it’s likely the big players will cash out. Who will be left holding the bag? Think about it.

I’m not trying to be bearish, just reminding everyone not to mistake expectations for reality. Investing is risky, especially—don’t go all-in when emotions are running the highest.