#美联储重启降息步伐 Let's talk about the upcoming market trend. My view is clear—look to build short positions on rallies.

First, the macro perspective. The Fed's rate cut is almost a certainty this time, with market expectations maxed out at 99.9%. The problem is, when expectations are fully priced in, that's often the top. History has repeatedly shown that pre-event euphoria often turns into selling pressure once the news is out.

Technically? The daily chart just rebounded to the 30-day moving average, a key resistance level, and started hesitating around the 94,100 area. To be honest, this rebound was mainly driven by news of a certain exchange founder's release, with sentiment outweighing trend support.

Looking at Japan, the rate cut expectations have already played out. If the policy actually lands, the market may even turn ahead of time, as these macro events usually follow the "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern.

On a longer time frame, the four-year cycle rule in the crypto market still holds. 2026 is highly likely to be a bear market stage, and at the current position, the probability of the rebound failing to break new highs is quite high. "There's no lowest, only lower" is especially true at the end of a cycle.

Additionally, US stocks are approaching all-time highs, having had a strong bull run under certain policy tailwinds. In terms of capital rotation, the period before and after the Christmas holidays is often a window for profit-taking, so be alert for topping signals.

Based on these judgments, I plan to build a medium- to long-term short position in batches.

$BTC Operation range: Enter in three tiers in the 90,000-91,500 area ( with 3%, 5%, and 10% position increments ); first target is 83,600, and in extreme cases, watch 78,800.

$ETH Operation range: Gradually build positions in the 3,060-3,100 range, use the same position allocation as above, initial target is 2,660, and for deeper corrections, watch 2,350.

That's all for the weekend. Trade within your means, and wish you successful trading.