Prediction Markets Bet on Fed Rate Cuts: The Market Consensus Behind $260 Million in Trading Volume

PriceOracleFairy · 2025-12-06T02:24:17+00:00

According to Polymarket data, the market's probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in December is as high as 94%, with only 6% expecting rates to remain unchanged, and a small portion even betting on a 50 basis point cut. The total trading volume has reached $260 million, indicating that a rate cut has almost become a consensus, and the activity in the prediction market has surpassed that of traditional financial analysts.

PriceOracleFairy

2025-12-06 02:24:17

Abstract generation in progress

[Bitpush] The prediction market is buzzing again.

The latest data from Polymarket is pretty interesting—bets on a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in December have surged to a 94% probability, while the chance of rates staying unchanged? Only 6% of people are still holding on. Even more outrageous, some are actually betting on a 50 basis point cut. The odds are just 1%, but that’s quite the wild imagination.

The trading volume for this prediction event says it all: $260 million. The market is voting with real money, basically treating the rate cut as a done deal. Will Powell stick to the script? We’ll find out at the end of the month. Right now, the level of activity on on-chain prediction markets is, in some ways, even more exciting than reports from traditional financial analysts.

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