Bitcoin options data reveals a hidden clue: this rebound may not hold.

[Chain Article] The crypto market seems to have stabilized recently, but to be honest, this rebound feels pretty weak—there aren’t any major positive catalysts from within the crypto industry itself supporting it.

You can tell from the options market data: although spot Bitcoin trading is quite calm, call positions still dominate on the options side. Over the past two weeks, the put/call ratio has dropped sharply, indicating that traders are betting on another rally by year-end. The problem is, options trading volume has noticeably shrunk recently, and there’s clearly a lack of momentum behind the price rise.

Take a look at the key $95,000 strike call options—net call premiums have been dropping these past few days, and the market just doesn’t have the drive to push higher. Implied volatility across different expiration dates is also falling, so people aren’t rushing to hedge or leverage up for a bull run; they just think prices will trade sideways. At times like this, even though there are a lot of call options, the positions are actually pretty passive.

The 25 Delta skew is still in positive territory, which means the market is still pricing in downside risk, and this kind of structure usually doesn’t lead to breakout moves.

To put it simply, the core support for prices right now is the expectation of a rate cut in December. If that expectation changes, or if the Fed delivers a “hawkish cut,” implied volatility and spot prices could collapse together.