BTC is now in a bit of an awkward situation. It has fallen from $126k to where it is now, with two important support levels ($106.4k and $99k) being penetrated. Institutional investors are pulling out aggressively, and the ETF saw a record second-largest net outflow of $1.2B last week.

According to the price channel formed by on-chain activities, the next key positions are: $93k (first line of defense) → $85k (if it continues to fall) → $79k (this one is relatively stable).

The most heartbreaking thing is that in previous years, BTC always peaked around the halving, but this time it broke the historical high of $69k back in January. Now it's reversing and crashing, which is a bit against the usual pattern.

If it really breaks through $79k, the next support will have to look at $49k-$56k, which would be a true bear market level—however, analysts believe this story may not unfold until 2026-2027.

The market is in this state now: there is no fundamental collapse, it's purely institutions squeezing liquidity. As long as large funds do not flow back, Bitcoin will continue its game of breaking down.