The recent Rebound and pump of BTC indicates one thing: the market no longer has upward momentum.

This Monday morning, BTC pumped and briefly broke through the resistance level of 116,000 (with a peak spike up to 116,400), and the main forces were fully aimed at harvesting the highly leveraged shorts. This is because the liquidation map from a few days ago showed that as long as the market stood above 116,000, it could harvest most of the short positions in the market, as shown in Figure 1.

So, the rise is not a real rise, it's just to harvest the opponent's position. This also determines that the main funds in the market temporarily have no long-term goals, and taking a profit and leaving is the best strategy under the current circumstances.

If the bullish buying is strong, under the high certainty of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points again today, BTC should continue to push upwards after breaking through the resistance level of 116,000, moving towards the target of 120,000. At the very least, it should stabilize at the level of 114,000, accumulating strength in the range of 114,000 to 116,000, and then gradually push upwards. Instead of choosing to retreat quickly and directly dropping below 113,000.

Tonight, the good news of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is set to land, but even BTC does not have strong buying support, indicating that the market is completely uninterested in the hype surrounding the Fed's rate cut. Without real financial backing, it won't go far in the short term, still maintaining a range of 106,000---116,000. Or, from a longer time perspective, the crash on October 11 has already shaken the foundation of the rising trend. It has been less than 20 days since October 11, and the market's vitality cannot be restored in such a short time.

From the perspective of market downturn, there was originally a longer period of oscillating downward adjustment (especially for altcoins), which was completed in just a few hours in the early morning of October 11. In fact, the bears did not gain much benefit. Based on the current market performance, even with the second guaranteed interest rate cut by the dollar today, one should not expect any stimulus for the market in the next two months or in December. The market has fully priced in the dollar's interest rate cut, and most of the bull market's rise has already been realized. The funds in the market have been completely harvested, and the upcoming market can only expect a disordered large-range oscillation for quite some time, making trading more difficult. Don't think that a slight rise in the market means that BTC will hit 140,000-150,000 or ETH will reach 6,000; we need to look at the facts.

Even in the China-U.S. trade negotiations, both sides say the good news of winning is overwhelming, but it will not have a greater stimulus on the financial market, as neither side is willing to directly soften their stance.

As the remaining days of the 25 years decrease, the probability of BTC reaching its highest point of 126,200 in October forming the top of this bull market is increasing. #比特币行情分析 #广场创作者认证申请上线 #