CME Fed Watch data shows the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September has dropped sharply to 71.5%, down from nearly 99% just a week ago. Even more striking—just yesterday, the odds were around 85%.

🔍Why the sudden shift?
▫️ The FOMC minutes revealed the Fed is more concerned about rising inflation than employment risks.
▫️ July’s PPI data showed inflation creeping up, making a September cut far from guaranteed.
▫️ Jobless claims, while climbing to 235,000, haven’t been enough to swing expectations back in favor of a cut.
🔍 All eyes now on Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole tomorrow—markets will be watching closely for any hints about the Fed’s next move ahead of the September 17 FOMC meeting.
💡 Key takeaway: Monetary policy remains a balancing act—inflation vs. employment—and the Fed isn’t rushing decisions. For businesses, investors, and professionals, staying agile is more important than ever.