Bitcoin has become a “macroeconomic compass” amid tensions in Iran and signals from Trump

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Chairman of the Iranian Parliament, posted a noteworthy market comment on the X platform right before a major move in the futures market. Amid the “propaganda war” spreading across social media, the remarks also revived allegations of insider trading tied to war odds on Polymarket.

He wrote: “pre-market” news is often just an excuse to take profits. When the market is “pumped,” short it; when it’s “dumped,” buy.

The market moves that followed then nearly played out exactly according to this script.

The news outlet The Kobeissi Letter noted a timeline-based chain of movements: S&P 500 futures plunged sharply at Sunday evening’s open, recovered late in the session, and continued higher after Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that he had made “major progress” in peace talks with Iran.

News outlets such as MarketWatch and Barron’s also confirmed this trend, showing that Trump’s social media posts continuously have a direct impact on the short-term valuation of stocks, oil, and the crypto market.

Signals from Trump are becoming a “price transmission channel”

According to Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal, billions of dollars worth of oil futures contracts and index positions were traded right before and after Trump’s posts related to Iran, drawing attention at major trading desks.

At present, the market is being affected simultaneously by:

• geopolitical risk premia in oil
• the risk of slower growth
• and a “political communications channel” capable of impacting asset prices immediately

In the first session of the week, S&P 500 futures continued to rise as Trump said the U.S. is “seriously negotiating” with a “new, more reasonable” administration in Iran.

However, alongside that, the risk of escalation still remains, since he previously warned that he would “totally wipe out” Iran’s energy and water infrastructure if talks fail.

The combination of a calming signal and the risk of escalation has caused oil prices to swing sharply. WTI jumped above $100 per barrel, Brent rose above $108, and at one point surged past $116 as the conflict intensified.

Bitcoin gains with a 24/7 trading advantage

Against that backdrop, Bitcoin shows a clear structural advantage over traditional U.S. risk assets: it trades continuously 24/7.

Unlike the stock market on Wall Street, Bitcoin:

• trades through the weekend
• reacts during Asian hours
• and continues to reprice when the U.S. market is closed

This makes Bitcoin play two roles:

1. reacting to macro shocks like the S&P 500
2. while also providing real-time signals on market sentiment outside U.S. hours

Price action: earlier, smoother, more continuous

In the recent Iran–Trump sequence of events:

• Bitcoin fell sharply late in the week
• then entered a prolonged accumulation phase while the U.S. market was closed
• and then gradually recovered ahead of the U.S. market open

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has had more intermittent and sharper swings during the session.

Bitcoin therefore:

• reacts earlier
• adjusts more continuously
• and forms a price base before the U.S. market opens

Earlier, when the conflict began over the weekend, Bitcoin had fallen 8.5% while traditional markets were not operating. Then:

• it dropped to around $67,300
• it rebounded above $71,000 when negotiation signals appeared
• and then continued to fluctuate according to mixed messages

Bitcoin reflects the macro—but in its own way

At the level of a “market regime,” Bitcoin and the S&P 500 tend to move similarly:

• both fall when geopolitical tensions rise
• both rise when calming signals appear

However, their paths differ:

• Bitcoin absorbs the shock for longer while the U.S. market is closed
• the more pronounced uptrend often shows up near the time the U.S. market opens

This suggests Bitcoin acts like a “leading indicator” for moves in traditional markets.

Next week: oil, economic data, and signals from Bitcoin

This week’s outlook revolves around one main axis: oil prices.

According to The Wall Street Journal, WTI crude has risen by about 50% since the U.S. and Israel struck Iran at the end of February. Meanwhile, the OECD forecasts that U.S. inflation in 2026 could reach 4.2%, significantly higher than its prior forecast due to an energy shock.

Key data releases coming up:

• employment report (3/4) — from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
• retail sales (1/4) — from the Census Bureau
• manufacturing PMI (1/4) — from the Institute for Supply Management
• international trade (2/4) — from the Bureau of Economic Analysis

All of these will now be assessed through a “petroleum lens,” increasing pressure on all risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Conclusion: Bitcoin is a leading indicator for the global market

At present, Bitcoin is playing two important roles:

• a macro-sensitive asset during the repricing of geopolitics
• and a 24/7 price-discovery platform for shocks outside U.S. market hours

That’s what makes Bitcoin a particularly useful tool:

• if Trump posts over the weekend → Bitcoin reacts first
• if oil moves during Asian hours → Bitcoin absorbs first
• if early diplomatic signals emerge → Bitcoin reprices risk before the S&P 500

Recent patterns show a 3-step cycle:

1. repricing of risk
2. stabilization while the U.S. market is closed
3. moving higher again when it opens

If this cycle repeats, Bitcoin’s weekend and overnight volatility will be the earliest signal of whether the market is preparing for a temporary rebound or entering a week dominated by an energy shock.