Iran War Is the Real Reason Taiwan Is Restarting Nuclear Power? He Throws Out Two Data Points to Question: Nuclear Power Isn't Because of AI

President Lai Ching-te proposed restarting nuclear power plants, citing the surge in electricity demand from AI. However, Fenix, CEO of Teahouse Finance, expressed a different opinion on his personal blog. He believes that the AI industry’s electricity consumption monster—data centers—are mainly concentrated in the United States and China. Taiwan is not currently a major electricity consumer for AI training, so the so-called “AI electricity demand explosion” does not pose an immediate pressure on the local power grid.

On the other hand, 40% of Taiwan’s electricity generation comes from natural gas. After Iran’s drone attack on energy facilities, Qatar announced a temporary halt to liquefied natural gas (LNG) production. As the world’s second-largest LNG exporter, Qatar supplies about 20% of global LNG. Additionally, the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked. When this shipping route faces blockade or severe disruption, the Asian energy supply chain will be hit hardest. This may be the real reason behind the push to restart nuclear power.

Taiwan’s 40% of electricity from natural gas, LNG stuck in the Strait of Hormuz

First, the key lies in Taiwan’s current energy structure. According to publicly available data, natural gas (LNG) accounts for about 40% of Taiwan’s power generation. The actual safe inventory of LNG typically lasts only about 7 to 11 days.

Recently, tensions in the Middle East have escalated, especially with increased risks in the Strait of Hormuz, which is a critical bottleneck for global LNG transportation. After Iran’s drone attack on energy facilities, Qatar announced a temporary halt to LNG production. As the world’s second-largest LNG exporter, Qatar supplies roughly 20% of global LNG.

(Iran drone attack, Qatar halts LNG! 20% of global liquefied natural gas comes from here)

Analysts believe that if this shipping route is blocked or severely disrupted, the Asian energy supply chain will be the first to suffer. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos also announced that the country has officially entered a “national energy emergency,” confirming that fuel reserves can only last for another 45 days. Against this backdrop, Taiwan’s heavily import-dependent energy structure (with an overall energy import dependency of over 97%) is once again highlighted, bringing “energy security” back to the policy forefront.

(Philippines declares “national energy emergency”: fuel reserves only last 45 more days)

Taiwan is not the main electricity consumer for AI

On the other hand, linking nuclear power restart directly to AI electricity demand has been questioned for lacking industry-based reality. Observing the current global AI infrastructure layout, large-scale data centers required for training massive models are mainly concentrated in the U.S. (Virginia, Texas, Arizona) and China. Taiwan’s role in the AI industry chain remains centered on chip manufacturing—producing chips and exporting them to overseas data centers for actual computation and training.

In other words, Taiwan is not a primary electricity consumer for AI training, so the so-called “AI electricity demand explosion” does not pose an immediate pressure on the local power grid.

Taiwan’s push for nuclear power isn’t because of AI, but because the Strait of Hormuz is blocked

Fenix pointed out that, in terms of power generation structure, coal has storage advantages but environmental costs are high; natural gas is relatively low-carbon but highly dependent on imports; renewable energy is limited by intermittency and cannot reliably serve as a stable base load. Under these conditions, the ultimate energy option still returns to nuclear power.

Compared to others, nuclear energy has the advantage of not requiring continuous fuel imports. Fuel rods can be loaded once and operate for about 18 months, and they are small in size with long-term pre-stocking capabilities, making it one of the few power generation methods that can meet large-scale supply, stable output, and relative energy independence.

He said, “I believe the government has known this helplessness for a long time, but it’s impossible to tell people that we’re about to go to war—if we say that, then the cables on the sea could be cut again, causing internet and power outages. So now, of course, they say AI is coming.”

Therefore, the real motivation behind the government’s push to restart nuclear power may not be solely due to AI electricity demand, but rather a response to rising geopolitical risks and increasing energy supply uncertainties. As for external rhetoric, it tends to frame AI development as a more socially and market-acceptable policy justification.

This article questions whether Iran’s war is the real reason for Taiwan’s nuclear restart, citing two data points: nuclear power is not primarily driven by AI, first appearing in ABMedia’s Chain News.