Gate News reports that tonight at 8:30 PM Beijing time, the United States will release the January PCE Price Index. Market expectations are that the PCE data will increase by 2.9% year-over-year, unchanged from the previous value, and rise by 0.3% month-over-month, slowing from last month’s 0.4%. On the core side, the market expects the core PCE Price Index to accelerate slightly to 3.1% year-over-year, the largest increase since April 2024, with a month-over-month increase remaining at 0.4%.
As a key data point from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the PCE Price Index directly references CPI data across several price categories. Following the release of the latest CPI data, economists quickly revised upward their forecasts for the February core PCE Price Index, which will be announced on April 9. Several economists expect this index to increase by 0.4% for the second consecutive month, with some predicting even larger gains.
This divergence stems from different weighting methods for specific items in each inflation indicator. The CPI, compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, places significant emphasis on housing costs, with a key metric called “Rent of Primary Residence” rising only 0.1% since January, the lowest in five years. Meanwhile, CPI assigns a higher weight to used car prices, which have fallen for three consecutive months.
On the other hand, the PCE Price Index places more emphasis on certain specific goods. Economists note that products like computer software and jewelry saw significant increases in the February CPI, and these items have a greater impact on PCE inflation. Analysts from Barclays, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America forecast that the February PCE core goods prices will rise by at least 0.8%, ten times the increase shown in the latest CPI report. Additionally, a phenomenon has emerged in the two main indicators measuring consumer prices in the U.S.: the PCE data, which is almost always more “moderate” than CPI, is now experiencing a significant surge.
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