As of January 6, Solana broke through $137 with a weekly gain of 7%. Spot ETF inflows reached $16.24 million on Monday, creating a new high since mid-December, with total net assets exceeding $1 billion. Stablecoin supply rebounded to $15.32 billion, with a clear buyer-dominated trend. Technically, after breaking through the wedge and consolidating above the 50-day EMA, RSI surged to 63, targeting $150.61.
Spot ETF Capital Inflows Create New High Since Mid-December
(Source: SoSoValue)
Since its launch on October 28, Solana institutional demand has continued to grow. SoSoValue data shows that Solana spot ETF recorded $16.24 million in capital inflows on Monday, marking the highest single-day inflow since mid-December. Additionally, total net assets have exceeded $1 billion this week to date, indicating sustained rise in institutional demand. If capital inflows continue and intensify, SOL price could experience a rally.
This return of institutional buying mirrors the V-shaped reversal logic of Bitcoin’s Coinbase premium index. Year-end accounting selling pressure in late December forced institutions to liquidate losing positions for tax optimization. As the new fiscal year starts in 2026, these funds begin reallocation. Solana’s spot ETF, as a compliant channel for institutional participation in the Solana ecosystem, naturally becomes the preferred vehicle for capital reflow.
Breaking through $1 billion in total net assets holds significant symbolic meaning. This not only represents institutional recognition of Solana’s long-term prospects but also shows that Solana has upgraded from “high-risk altcoin” to “institutional-grade allocation target.” As ETF net assets continue to expand, issuers need to purchase equivalent SOL in the spot market for support, with this passive buying providing stable upward momentum for prices.
If the capital inflow trend continues, Solana’s spot ETF total net assets could potentially break through $1.5 billion to $2 billion in Q1. This scale of institutional holdings will significantly reduce SOL’s circulating supply, as tokens held by ETFs are typically locked long-term in custodial cold wallets. Supply contraction combined with rising demand is a classic combination for driving sustained price increases.
Dual Verification from Stablecoin Market Cap and Whale Activity
(Source: DefiLlama)
DefiLlama data shows that total SOL stablecoin supply has been rebounding since early January and has now reached $15.32 billion. The activity and value growth of SOL project stablecoins indicate positive prospects, as this will enhance network utilization and attract more users into the ecosystem. Stablecoin market cap is one of the core indicators for measuring public chain health, as it directly reflects the scale of on-chain economic activity.
When users transfer stablecoins like USDC and USDT onto the Solana chain, it means they are preparing to conduct transactions, lending, or other DeFi activities within the Solana ecosystem. Rising stablecoin market cap indicates that funds are flowing in rather than out of Solana. With $15.32 billion in stablecoin market cap, Solana has become the third-largest stablecoin public chain after Ethereum and Tron, solidifying its core position in the DeFi ecosystem.
CryptoQuant aggregated data shows that Solana spot and futures markets both display large block orders, market cooling, and buyer-dominated trends, indicating a bullish market outlook. All these factors suggest that trader sentiment is improving, hinting that bull market conditions may continue over the coming days. The appearance of large block orders typically represents whales or institutions building positions; these players’ capital scale and holding periods often provide strong price support.
Market cooling refers to excessively high leverage ratios and funding rates returning to normal levels. Historically, when Solana surged, it was often accompanied by extremely high funding rates—an unsustainable overheated state. Current market conditions show moderate appreciation with healthy leverage, making this increase more sustainable and less prone to cascading liquidations from unexpected events.
Three On-Chain Indicators Strengthen Simultaneously
Stablecoin Market Cap Rebounds to $15.32 Billion: Indicates funds are flowing into the Solana ecosystem with heating on-chain economic activity. Such capital inflows typically lead price changes by 1-2 weeks, serving as a leading indicator.
Increased Whale Activity: Rising large block order counts indicate major holders are accumulating chips. Whale accumulation behavior is typically based on in-depth research and long-term judgment, carrying high reference value.
Strengthened Buyer Dominance: The comparison of buy-sell pressure in spot and futures markets shows buyer force has surpassed sellers. Such dominance reversals often mark the beginning of trend reversals.
Technical Breakout of Wedge Targets $150
(Source: Trading View)
On December 26, Solana price broke through the upper trendline of the descending wedge formation (formed by multiple highs and lows connected since early October). As of Monday, the price rose more than 12%, closing at $163.45, above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA). As of Tuesday, SOL traded above $137.
If SOL continues to rise, the uptrend may extend to the next resistance level of $150.61, which is its 100-day moving average. This position is a key watershed for intermediate trends; if it breaks through and consolidates above it, it will confirm a complete trend reversal. On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 63, above the 50 neutral level, indicating that bullish momentum is strengthening.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a golden cross with green histogram bars breaking above the neutral level, further supporting the bullish view. MACD golden cross is a classic trend reversal signal; when the fast line crosses above the slow line from below, it typically signals the beginning of an uptrend. Currently, not only has MACD formed a golden cross, but the histogram has also turned positive, providing dual confirmation of strengthening bullish force.
On the other hand, if SOL experiences a pullback, it may continue declining and find support near $126.65 at the weekly level. This position is the lower boundary of the previous consolidation range and a key battleground for short-term bulls and bears. If this support breaks, Solana could retest $120 or even lower levels.
