Can the 2025 Solana ETF be listed? Online betting odds: as high as 86% chance!

The forecast shows that the probability of Solana ETF listing in the United States in 2025 has risen to 86%, and Trump's inauguration may become an important factor in promoting cryptocurrency ETF listing.
What happened?
* According to the data from the prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of Solana ETF being listed in the United States in 2025 has increased from 77% to 86%.
Market views believe that after Trump takes office, he will become a driving force for the listing of other types of cryptocurrency ETFs.
*If the Solana ETF wants to successfully list, it must adopt a "Grantor Trust" structure similar to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, and avoid being viewed as a security, otherwise it will face stricter regulatory requirements.
Polymarket predicts that the probability of Solana ETF listing in the United States is as high as 86%
According to the data released by the cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket on New Year's Day, the initial probability of the Solana ETF being listed in the United States in 2025 is 77%, however, Matthew Sigel, research head of asset management company VanEck, responded that this probability is 'underestimated'.
As of the current writing, the probability predicted on January 3rd has indeed reached 86%. According to Cointelegraph, Siegel's optimism reflects the industry's expectations for more cryptocurrency ETFs to be listed in the United States, especially after Donald Trump, who supports cryptocurrencies, won the US presidential election.
Trump has stated that he hopes to make the United States the "world’s crypto capital".
Trump's inauguration as Solana ETF pushes for help
The listing of Solana ETF has attracted industry attention. In June last year, VanEck and other competitors such as 21Shares submitted relevant applications to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), but in August, they were questioned by the SEC, pointing out that Solana may be considered a security rather than a commodity.
If cryptocurrencies are considered securities, the establishment and listing of ETFs will become more complicated, as they will need to comply with strict regulations of the US securities law. The institutions issuing ETFs must complete more compliance procedures, such as submitting detailed documents, registering applications, and ensuring that transactions with investors comply with securities law requirements.
The controversy has affected the ETF launch plans of many asset management institutions, but the market view is that Trump's victory will be a boost for the launch of other types of cryptocurrency ETFs. As early as November 2024, Siegel predicted that the chances of the United States approving a Solana ETF in 2025 are "extremely high".
"Cointelegraph" pointed out that the currently listed Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the United States use a special structure called "Grantor Trust", which is suitable for funds that simply hold a single commodity. If the Solana ETF wants to successfully list, it must adopt a similar structure and avoid being seen as a security, otherwise it will face stricter regulatory requirements.
Whether the Solana ETF can successfully go public or not will be a key point in 2025 when Trump officially takes over as President of the United States.