Options, to put it simply, are just time being charged. The buyer pays rent every day for "waiting and seeing," and even if the underlying asset stays still, it still gets worn down; the seller, on the surface, like collecting rent, earns time value daily, but when big volatility hits, it’s like paying back all the rent collected earlier in one go. Recently, some people shout "smart money is here" whenever there's a large on-chain transfer or a small move in exchange hot and cold wallets, but I find it pretty annoying: large amounts ≠ direction, more often it's just position/hedging changing hands. Anyway, I treat complexity as an enemy, and I ask first: who is paying the time fee in this transaction, and who is bearing tail risk? If you can't figure it out, don’t force it.

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