The weakening of geopolitical support combined with the US dollar remaining strong, gold continues to adjust, and remains within the range for now.

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Source: Huitong Finance

On Tuesday Asian session, spot gold retreated to around $4,620, a clear pullback from the previous high, showing a pattern of rising and then consolidating. From a market structure perspective, gold is currently caught in a multi-factor game, but short-term bearish signals are gradually strengthening.

Fundamentally, the Middle East situation continues to revolve around the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. President Donald Trump previously set a deadline and issued tough signals, temporarily boosting risk aversion sentiment. However, as the market gradually digests related risks, the marginal support from geopolitical factors on gold prices has significantly weakened, failing to push gold into a sustained upward trend. This indicates that the current market is more focused on macro variables rather than single-event drivers.

Meanwhile, the macro environment is exerting clear pressure on gold. Federal Reserve policy expectations remain hawkish, with markets generally expecting interest rates to stay high for an extended period. Additionally, the U.S. dollar index remains in a high range, reinforcing downward pressure on gold. Since gold is priced in dollars, a strong dollar usually means reduced attractiveness for non-dollar investors, suppressing price gains.

In terms of inflation, sustained high oil prices further reinforce market expectations of inflation stickiness, which to some extent weakens expectations of rate cuts. Overall, the combination of “high interest rates + strong dollar” is becoming the dominant factor in current gold trends, making it difficult for safe-haven attributes to fully play a role.

From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, gold faced significant resistance after reaching a dense pressure zone during the previous rally, combined with a descending trendline, forming a typical “false breakout + pullback” pattern. The current price has fallen below the resistance zone, indicating insufficient bullish momentum. Key resistance is at $4,680–$4,700, an area with confluence of previous highs and trendline pressure, making short-term突破难度较大。下方支撑位在4550美元，进一步支撑在4400美元，一旦跌破，将确认中期调整延续。从动能指标来看，MACD出现死叉迹象，RSI自高位回落至中性区域，表明上涨动能明显减弱。在4小时图上，黄金呈现震荡下行结构，高点逐步下移，形成短期下降趋势线压制。价格多次反弹至趋势线附近但未能突破，显示上方抛压较强。短期均线系统转为空头排列，增强下行信号。当前短线阻力位在4650–4680美元，若反弹无法突破该区间，则仍将延续回调节奏。下方关键支撑关注4550美元，跌破后可能加速下行。

Editor’s Summary:

The current dominant logic in the gold market is shifting from “geopolitical-driven” to “interest rate and dollar-driven.” Although the Middle East situation still provides some support, its influence has significantly weakened, while high interest rates and a strong dollar continue to suppress gold prices. From a technical standpoint, gold has entered a mid-term correction phase; without突破关键阻力，难以重新启动上涨趋势。未来应重点关注美元走势和利率预期变化，预计金价将维持区间震荡偏弱的格局运行。

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Editor: Zhu Hennan