Futures
Access hundreds of perpetual contracts
TradFi
Gold
One platform for global traditional assets
Options
Hot
Trade European-style vanilla options
Unified Account
Maximize your capital efficiency
Demo Trading
Introduction to Futures Trading
Learn the basics of futures trading
Futures Events
Join events to earn rewards
Demo Trading
Use virtual funds to practice risk-free trading
Launch
CandyDrop
Collect candies to earn airdrops
Launchpool
Quick staking, earn potential new tokens
HODLer Airdrop
Hold GT and get massive airdrops for free
Launchpad
Be early to the next big token project
Alpha Points
Trade on-chain assets and earn airdrops
Futures Points
Earn futures points and claim airdrop rewards
More
[U.S. Stock Market Open] Oil prices up 2%, U.S. Treasury yields hit 4.46%, Dow Jones drops 354 points (updating continuously)
U.S. President Trump says he will extend for 10 more days the plan to bomb Iranian power plants. This has not eased market fears; instead, there is growing concern that if the conflict drags on, it could affect oil supplies, worsening the impact on the global economy, and raising concern that global central banks may fall into an interest-rate-hike cycle. The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasuries rose to 4.46%, the highest in more than 8 months. The yield on 20-year government bonds rose even further, crossing 5%, the first time since last July.
U.S. stocks have seen choppy trading. The Dow fell 354 points to 45,605; the S&P 500 fell 0.7% to 6,432; and the Nasdaq fell 0.8% to 21,245.
Oil prices have kept rising. New York futures oil rose 2.6% to $96.95; Brent May futures rose 2.4% to $110.57; and June futures rose 2.1% to $104.02.
Gold prices rose by more than 1%. New York futures gold rose 0.9% to $4,448; spot gold rose 0.9% to $4,418.
Funds continued to flow into the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset. The U.S. Dollar Index broke above the 100 level. LGT Royal Bank (Asia) said that tactically it maintains a neutral stance on the dollar; on one hand, it considers that the U.S., as the world’s largest net energy exporter, benefits from more favorable trade conditions amid the current energy crisis; on the other hand, it also reflects the defensive role of the dollar as a safe-haven asset during market volatility. Given the current inflation environment, we believe the Federal Reserve’s room to cut rates is more limited than in the past. Under the bank’s baseline scenario, it expects at most one rate cut in 2026, lower than the previously expected 1 to 2 cuts.
The bank expects that, within 6 to 12 months, assuming energy transport through the Strait of Hormuz gradually returns to normal, the market will gradually revert to the trend of diversifying allocations away from the dollar, creating mild downward pressure on the dollar and causing it to weaken versus some of the major currencies. The outlook reflects that the market still remains uncertain about U.S. policy and fiscal sustainability, while other economies such as Australia and China have relatively improved prospects. However, upside risk for the dollar still exists, and the longer the energy supply disruption lasts, the more evident the risk becomes.
Hong Kong stocks and ADR market updates continue—see: next page
Intraday performance:
【18:29】Trump extends the final deadline by 10 days again—Dow futures down 67 points and Nasdaq futures down 0.2%—U.S. Dollar and U.S. long-term Treasury yields rise together
【15:11】Dow futures up 177 points to 46,407; S&P 500 futures up 29 points to 6,554; Nasdaq futures up 111 points, or 0.5%, to 23,905.
【15:11】Oil prices diverge. New York futures oil down 0.3% to $94.24; Brent futures up nearly 0.1% to $108.11. Gold prices rise more than 1%: New York futures gold at $4,487, up 1.8%; spot gold at $4,451, up 1.7%.
【13:25】【AI + memory】Google unveils new technology TurboQuant to disrupt storage and chip stocks—Morgan Stanley calls it “another DeepSeek moment”—analysis: bullish for cloud service giants
【11:26】【U.S. dollar bills】Trump signs to put his name on the updated U.S. currency—breaking the 165-year tradition for U.S. presidents
【11:15】【Japanese yen trend】Japanese yen vs. Hong Kong dollar at 4.91—Japan’s Finance Minister Kamiyama Akizuki hints it will intervene in FX markets
【10:56】【AAPL】Apple unusually awards bonuses to iPhone hardware designers to prevent employees from being poached by OpenAI, etc.
【10:49】【U.S. interest rate policy】Fed Vice Chair Jefferson: Higher energy prices still have limited impact on inflation—the current rate stance is appropriate
【10:24】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI promotes ads in the U.S.; six-week revenue already exceeds $100 million—expanding to more countries in the coming weeks
【10:07】【Gold price trend】Gold recovers part of its losses. Trump again postpones the deadline for reaching an agreement with Iran—Turkey’s central bank sells more than $8 billion in gold, intensifying downward pressure on gold prices
【10:06】【Iran crisis】Trump: Extend the negotiation final deadline to April 6—“Iran’s representatives politely asked for 7 days; I gave them 10 days” (updates continue)
【09:59】【NFLX】Netflix raises monthly fees for all U.S. subscribers—up as much as more than 12%
【09:28】【IPO news】Anthropic reportedly considers listing as early as October—may raise more than $60 billion
【08:47】【IPO news】SpaceX reportedly plans an investor briefing in April—aims to allocate up to 30% of IPO shares to retail investors
【08:16】【AI + Siri】Apple’s Siri “major overhaul”—Apple reportedly plans to open Siri to external AI assistants
$1 and below refers to U.S. stock market conditions as of March 26 ===
Thursday: Trump extends the bombing of Iranian power plants by 10 more days—oil prices are a roller coaster
U.S. President Trump wrote on the social platform Truth Social saying, “At the request of the Iranian government, please let this statement represent that the destruction window of the power plants will be paused for 10 days, until Monday, April 6, 2026, 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time. Talks are ongoing, and although the fake news media and others are spreading the opposite of wrong reports, the talks are going very smoothly.”
Brent crude futures briefly erased 7% of its gains; however, since the message still indicates that the Strait of Hormuz will face 10 more days of blockade, oil prices then surged again by 5%, to $107.
Watch U.S. stocks close:
Track all markets on TradingView
With ongoing concerns over inflation, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.412%, up 0.079 percentage points. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% to 99.93.
The Dow closed down 469 points to 45,960; the S&P 500 fell 1.7% to 6,477; and the Nasdaq dropped 2.4% to 21,408.
At a cabinet meeting, Trump said that until Iran reaches an agreement to end the conflict, the U.S. will continue to strike them. He confirmed at the meeting that the U.S. still plans to keep Iran’s war going for only four to six weeks.
Trump revealed that the “gift” delivered by Iran’s negotiation representatives is permission for at least eight oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week. Trump said these ships’ passage is a signal to the U.S., showing that the representatives are demonstrating, “We are real and reliable.” Trump said these oil tankers may fly the Pakistani flag. He continued: “I said, ‘Well, I think we’re dealing with the right people.’ In fact, they later apologized for some things they said for themselves, and said they want to send two more ships.” The White House declined to provide more details about the tankers.
Earlier, Trump posted on Truth Social, saying that Iran’s negotiation representatives are unusual and “a bit weird.” On one hand, it’s understandable that they “plead” for the U.S. to reach an agreement. Yet they publicly said they are only considering the U.S.’s proposals. He called it completely wrong and urged Iran to take it seriously as soon as possible, otherwise it would be too late and the consequences would be disastrous!
He later said in an interview that the Iran issue will be resolved quickly, not too long; energy prices will fall, even back to lower levels. It is unclear whether Iran is willing to reach an agreement. He said they should have reached an agreement four weeks ago but missed the opportunity. He also said the U.S. has completely destroyed Iran’s navy and air force, and about 90% of missiles and missile launch systems, and he added that Iran should respond to Israel, other countries in the region, and the U.S. using nuclear weapons.
Iranian Tasnim News Agency cited insiders saying that on Wednesday (the 25th) evening, Iran officially responded to the ceasefire proposal containing 15 points that the U.S. put forward, and is awaiting the other side’s response. In its response, Iran said that the enemy’s aggression and terrorist acts must end; objective conditions must be created to ensure the war will not be repeated; war reparations must be guaranteed and settled; and the end of the war must be implemented on all fronts, against all resistance organizations involved in this fighting, across the entire region.
Egypt confirmed its participation in mediation between the U.S. and Iran. Egypt’s Foreign Minister Abdelatty said that Egypt, together with Turkey and Pakistan, is assisting in conveying messages between the U.S. and Iran, and is also participating in broader mediation efforts to help cool regional tensions.
Schroders said that there are still many possible scenarios for the development of the Iran war situation, making it difficult to clearly assess the outlook for the economy and financial markets: if oil prices are above $120 per barrel and below $90 per barrel, the global economy would look completely different. Compared with February, the probability of these two extremes has risen. Meanwhile, the probability of the “economic stability” scenario—previously a middle path with a mild, dovish tone—has been lowered accordingly.
The firm said that given the inflation pressure caused by the oil price shock, it has increased the probability of the “overheating” scenario. However, this assessment remains lower than the probability implied by the market. Central banks around the world will closely watch the possibility of “second-round impacts,” such as rising medium-term inflation expectations, wage increases, and supply-chain disruptions.
Hong Kong stocks and ADR market updates continue—see: next page
Intraday performance:
【23:00】Trump: The Iran problem will be resolved soon and energy prices will fall. Egypt confirms participation in mediation. Dow down 75 points; oil up 4%
【21:30】Trump urges Iran’s negotiators to take it seriously and move quickly. Egypt confirms participation in mediation. Dow down 218 points; oil up 4%
【18:15】Dow futures down 317 points and Nasdaq futures down 0.8%—oil up 4%—after two days of gold jumping, latest pullback
【14:27】Dow futures down 190 points to 46,521; S&P 500 futures down 29 points to 6,611; Nasdaq futures down 126 points, or 0.5%, to 24,241.
【14:27】Oil prices up 2%. New York futures oil at $92.41, up 2.3%; Brent futures at $104.68, up 2.4%. After two days of gold jumping, the latest pullback: New York futures gold down 3% to $4,446; spot gold down 1.7% to $4,429.
【14:19】【Private fund】Goldman Sachs former CEO warns: The private market hides a “fire” crisis—unsold assets could trigger large-scale write-downs
【13:39】【U.S. stock market analysis】Dow up 300 points. Analysis: The current rebound is betting on a ceasefire pause; the U.S.-Iran conflict is unlikely to end soon; oil prices will likely rise again
【11:58】【Iran crisis】Barclays CEO warns investors are underestimating Iran war risk—Even if “war is declared over tomorrow,” oil could still jump to $150
【11:43】【AI + Meta】Huge AI investment—Meta starts another round of layoffs involving hundreds of people
【10:47】【U.S. dollar trend】Morgan Stanley: Dollar up may be a “long position trap”—the market is underestimating the negative impact of Iran war on the U.S. economy—expects the Fed to cut rates twice this year
【10:15】【U.S. rate cuts】Fed governor Milan raises rate-cut expectations by 0.5 percentage points—says not due to oil prices and the Iran factor
【09:28】【Gold price trend】After two days of gold rising, spot gold continues to hold steady
【08:47】【Oil price trend】U.S. reportedly assessing the impact of oil prices rising to the $200 per barrel extreme scenario—White House denies
【08:29】【Iran crisis】Citrini, founder: The Fed will “ignore” the oil price shock—don’t give up on expectations of rate cuts. In February it published an AI “end-of-days report” that disrupted the market
【08:04】【Trump-Xi meeting announcement】The White House confirms that Trump will visit China from May 14 to May 15—saying Xi Jinping will also visit Washington this year
【07:27】【Iran crisis】No sign of Iran “sending a big gift.” White House spokesperson Leviatt: If Iran refuses to accept reality, Trump will increase strikes (updates continue)
$1 and below refers to U.S. stock market conditions as of March 25 ===
Wednesday: Dow up 305 points. Iran shoots down a U.S. F-18 fighter; White House: Trump to visit China in mid-May
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt announced Wednesday that the meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will be held in Beijing from May 14 to 15; market hopes for the new schedule suggest the U.S. expects the Middle East war to end in mid-May, and U.S. stocks rebounded sharply on Wednesday.
Watch U.S. stocks close:
The Dow’s gain widened to as much as 594 points. With the war negotiations still uncertain, by the close the Dow narrowed its gain to 305 points, closing at 46,429. The S&P 500 rose 0.54%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.77%, reflecting the performance of China concept stocks— the Golden Dragon Index rose 1.86%.
In focused stocks, Tesla Optimus released an official video and revealed related details, including the R&D environment, deceleration gearbox, and dexterous hands. Tesla Optimus said that Optimus will fundamentally change the economic landscape of labor and manufacturing. Musk said Optimus3 is expected to start production this summer and could achieve large-scale mass production in 2027. Tesla (U.S.: TSLA) rose 0.8%.
Shares of Amazon and Nvidia rose 2%. UK chip-design company Arm rolled out its own chips, boosting ADR shares by 16.4%.
On Wednesday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement saying that its air-defense unit, in the afternoon over the southeastern airspace, shot down a U.S. F-18 fighter jet. The fighter jet then crashed into the Indian Ocean.
Iran’s state-linked Tasnim News Agency on Wednesday (the 25th) cited insiders saying that Iran said it would refuse the ceasefire proposal put forward by the U.S., and would continue attacks on Israel and Gulf Arab countries. It said that Trump’s approach of starting indirect negotiations at the current stage of the conflict lacks logic and is not feasible. It also said Iran is focused on achieving its goals; only if these goals are achieved would it be possible to end the war, rather than a ceasefire. The report helped contain the decline in oil prices: New York futures oil fell as much as 6.38% to close at $90.32, still down 2.2%. Brent futures at one point slid 7% to $97.15, closing at $102.22, down 2.2%.
Iran’s state media Press TV cited a report from Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization saying that the Bushehr nuclear power plant was attacked again at 9:00 p.m. local time on Tuesday. The plant was previously hit in mid-March, when the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said the reactor itself was not damaged.
Iran reiterated that non-hostile ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz safely as long as coordination is in place. Marine Traffic data shows that since Monday (the 23rd), 9 vessels have passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
Spot gold prices rose as much as 2.83% to $4,602.34; Bitcoin briefly rose 2.79% to $72,013.
Memory stocks plunged sharply against the trend: Micron (U.S.: MU) fell 3.4%, and Sandisk (U.S.: SNDK) fell 3.5%. The main drag was news that South Korea’s semiconductor giant SK Hynix (Korea: 000660, SK Hynix) plans to list in the U.S.
Foreign media reported that SK Hynix has submitted a confidential filing to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), planning to issue American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) within the year. SK Hynix’s spokesperson said it is currently under review, including measures to enhance shareholder value such as issuing ADRs, but no final decision has been made yet.
Hong Kong stocks and ADR market updates continue—see: next page
Intraday performance:
【22:40】Dow up 371 points
【21:30】Brent futures down 5% and losing the $100 mark—Dow up 580 points and Nasdaq up 1.2%. Micron down 6%
【17:55】“Warm breeze” in Iran war negotiations—Dow futures up 365 points and Nasdaq futures up 1%; Brent futures down 4%, losing the $100 mark
【14:54】Dow futures up 339 points to 46,754; S&P 500 futures up 42 points to 6,648; Nasdaq futures up 160 points, or 0.7%, to 24,374.
【14:54】New York futures oil down 3.4% to $89.2; Brent futures down 4% to $100.3. New York futures gold up 3.3% to $4,578; spot gold up 1.7% to $4,549.
【13:57】【AI + Sora】OpenAI abruptly halts Sora AI video generation—shocks the market. 30 minutes after Disney wrapped a project meeting, it was suddenly told; OpenAI had still promoted Sora the day before
【13:52】【AI + IPO】SK Hynix plans to list in the U.S. within the year—has filed with the SEC—rumor says it will raise as much as $10 billion
【13:32】【U.S. stock analysis】The U.S. proposes a ceasefire agreement to Iran; Dow futures up more than 300 points. Analysis: Trump’s TACO; watch two key issues for the outlook
【11:01】【Iran situation】JPMorgan’s Dimon: In the long run, the war can help achieve lasting peace in the Middle East—because regional major powers’ interests are converging
【10:48】【U.S.-China relations】CIC reportedly considering re-allocating investments to U.S. asset management firms
【10:26】【AI + AAPL】Is Siri more than just a voice assistant? Apple upgrades Siri into a chat robot—adds a new “Ask Siri” feature—expected to appear at the June WWDC
【10:00】【Japanese yen trend】Japanese yen vs. Hong Kong dollar at 4.93. Japan Bank meeting minutes: Some members say hikes should be done in time to respond to rising inflation
【09:58】【U.S. rate cuts】Fed governor Barr: Rates may need to stay unchanged for “some time”; the Middle East situation brings “additional risks”
【09:39】【Gold price trend】Gold ends a nine-day losing streak! Spot gold reclaims the $4,500 level. Closing gold prices for the past two days in Hong Kong show a one-day rebound of 1,800 yuan
【08:54】【ARM + chips】Arm up 8% after the bell, to sell its own chips for the first time. Expected to generate about $15 billion in annual revenue within five years. Meta is the first major customer
【08:26】【IPO news】SpaceX reportedly plans to submit an IPO application as early as this week—may raise more than $75 billion
【08:23】【Iran crisis】Trump: Iran will send a big gift today— Rubio and Vance participate in the negotiations—on the condition that “it must never have nuclear weapons” (updates continue)
【08:01】【AI + AMZN】Software stocks get hurt again. Amazon reportedly developing a new kind of AI agent to replace parts of job functions
$1 and below refers to U.S. stock market conditions as of March 24 ===
Tuesday: Reports say the U.S. seeks to hold talks with Iran on Thursday—Brent holds steady; Dow’s decline narrows
Multiple U.S. media outlets reported that the U.S. has been in contact with Iran regarding a ceasefire plan. Axios reported that the U.S. and the intermediaries in the mediation are discussing the possibility of holding the highest-level talks on Thursday, but they are still waiting for Tehran’s response.
Watch U.S. stocks close:
Iran officials denied Trump’s claims about behind-the-scenes negotiations, but they confirmed that the U.S. has sent messages and proposals.
Oil prices stayed in wait-and-see mode: Brent futures rose 0.2% to close at $100.17, while New York futures oil rose 4.8% to close at $92.35.
Gold rebounded: spot gold rose 1.6% to close at $4,475.51. Spot silver saw little change, closing at $71.2194.
The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% to 99.23, while U.S. 10-year Treasury yields remained high at 4.36%.
U.S. stocks were slightly soft. The Dow had been down as much as 438 points, hitting a low of 45,769. It closed down 84 points at 46,124. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 6,556, and the Nasdaq fell 0.8% to 21,761.
Trump has postponed the final deadline by 5 days, but Israel and Iran continued sporadic attacks. Pakistan’s prime minister said it is willing to host U.S.-Iran talks to resolve the ongoing conflict.
Market reports said Iran has started charging transit fees to some merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Fees are collected temporarily on a per-voyage basis, with the maximum per one-way trip reaching up to $2 million—effectively setting up an informal “toll” on this waterway. It was reported that some ships have already paid the relevant fees, but the exact payment mechanism is unclear, including what currency is used.
Tasnim News Agency reported on Tuesday that after close coordination with Iranian authorities, a vessel flying the Thai flag successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday.
Citing local officials, Israel media outlet Ynet said the U.S. has set April 9 as the target date to end the war with Iran, meaning more than half a month will be used for fighting and negotiations. Washington is trying to end the fighting by the end of April. The report said that if the conflict ends around April 9 as scheduled, Trump plans to visit the area around May 14, around Israel’s Independence Day. Currently, countries such as Pakistan are actively mediating, trying to arrange indirect communication between the U.S. and Iran; there may be initial contact in Pakistan this week, but both sides have not officially confirmed.
In addition, according to CCTV citing Russian media reports, Salem Al-Jahuri, an Omani journalist and international relations researcher, on BBC Arabic confirmed that the U.S. is pressuring Gulf countries to force them to pay huge costs for U.S. involvement in the Iran conflict.
The report mentioned Trump is asking Arab allies for a huge “protection fee”—either pay $500 billion (about HK$3.9 trillion) to extend the war, or pay $250 billion (about HK$1.95 trillion) to end the war—and claimed this is compensation for “achieved results.”
Hong Kong stocks and ADR market updates continue—see: next page
Intraday performance:
【22:50】Report: Iran charges “transit tolls” to merchant ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz—Dow down 88 points, Nasdaq down 0.6%; oil jumps 3%
【21:30】Pakistan says it is ready to host U.S.-Iran talks—Dow down 338 points, Nasdaq down 0.6%; oil jumps 4%
【18:00】【Iran crisis】Is there a glimmer of hope for the U.S.-Iran war? Report: Trump set a “astronomical protection fee”—spend $2.5 trillion to end the war
【16:00】【Iran crisis】Reported: U.S. sets April 9 as a “final end-of-war day”—Iran continues to deny
【14:00】Dow futures down 258 points to 46,264; S&P 500 futures down 38 points to 6,596; Nasdaq futures down 150 points, or 0.6%, to 24,258.
【14:00】Oil prices rebound. New York futures oil at $91.6, up nearly 4%; Brent futures at $103.4, up 3.4%. Gold prices stay soft: New York futures gold down 0.9% to $4,400; spot gold down 1.1% to $4,357.
【14:00】【Iran crisis】DBS: In the short term, gold prices likely remain capped by ongoing fluctuations from the Middle East conflict; maintains a year-end target of $6,250
【13:23】【AI + OpenAI】Reported: OpenAI offers favorable terms to private equity firms—fighting for the corporate AI market with a 17.5% guaranteed return
【13:08】【OnlyFans】OnlyFans billionaire founder Leonid Radvinsky dies of cancer at age 43
【12:34】【Gold price trend】After nine straight days of declines, gold stays soft; Hong Kong’s two-session closing gold price drops below $40,000
【12:15】【Switch 2】Nintendo plans to cut this quarter’s Switch 2 production by about 33%—the production cut may continue through April
【11:51】【Gold price trend】Gold slips more than 20% from the high, entering a bear market. Morgan Stanley: Money flows from safe-haven assets into equities—good signal for U.S. stocks
【11:19】【Iran crisis】Hayashi Sanae orders assessment of supply chains for oil-related products to respond to the crisis. The finance ministry reportedly seeks market views on potential intervention in crude oil futures
【10:36】【AI + investing】Barclays CEO: The AI wave may worsen wealth inequality—investors should hedge the impact through their holdings
【08:37】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI says in investor documents that reliance on Microsoft poses a risk—what other risks are there?
【08:08】【Iran crisis】Fed official Daly: The U.S. economy faces at least two possible scenarios— the Fed needs to remain flexible to respond to risks
【07:48】【AI + Apple】Apple’s annual WWDC26 for developers will be held starting June 8—expected to roll out a series of AI features
【06:32】【Iran crisis】Iranian parliament speaker denies having negotiated with Trump—Britain’s destroyer “Dragon” arrives in the Mediterranean (updates continue)
$1 and below refers to U.S. stock market conditions as of March 23 ===
Monday: Trump’s comments still face doubt. Dow’s gain halves to 631 points; oil prices continue to fall by 10%.
U.S. President Trump claimed that negotiations with Iran had prompted a temporary halt to attacks on power plants. This sparked a pullback in oil prices and a rebound in stocks. The Dow had been up 1,134 points, hitting a high of 46,712; the S&P 500 had risen 2.2% to a high of 6,651; and the Nasdaq had risen 2.5% to a high of 22,189. By the close, the gains narrowed: the Dow closed up 631 points to 46,208; the S&P 500 closed up 1.1% to 6,581; and the Nasdaq closed up 1.4% to 21,946.
Watch U.S. stocks close:
Oil prices were down as much as 14.1% and ended down 10% at the close. New York futures oil closed at $88.13; Brent futures closed at $100.5. Spot gold had been down as much as 7%, hitting a low of $4,099.18, and closed down 1.9% at $4,407.18.
Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie Group, said, “We remain cautiously skeptical of this morning’s news and tweet suggesting an imminent ‘breakthrough.’ We think it’s unlikely the war will last beyond April, because Iran’s threats may be weakened then. But a large-scale military operation is also unlikely to end within this week.”
Trump posted on TruthSocial that talks with Iran over the past two days have gone smoothly. The two sides held talks, and he has instructed the U.S. Department of Defense to pause all military strikes on Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure for 5 days, provided the ongoing meetings and discussions are successful.
Trump later said that the two countries have reached several common understandings during the negotiations, including discussing potential candidates for Iran’s leader. He also said Iran agreed to give up nuclear weapons. At the same time, he said that if U.S.-Iran talks break down, bombing would continue.
However, Iran’s Tasnim News Agency later cited Iranian sources saying that the U.S. and Iran have not held negotiations and there are currently no negotiations. It also indicated that U.S. attacks are continuing and the Strait of Hormuz will not return to a pre-conflict status. Another agency, Mehr, also later cited the Iranian foreign ministry saying Trump’s statements aim to lower energy prices and give time for his military plans.
The Iranian foreign ministry then also weighed in, saying there are proposals to ease tensions, but Iran’s response is that the U.S. should be the party to engage in dialogue, because the war was not started by Iran.
Trump later further responded, saying the negotiations were held Sunday evening (the 22nd), emphasizing Iran’s urgent desire to reach an agreement, and admitting he does not know why Iranian media is pushing back on his claims.
T. Rowe Price said that after Iran was hit, gold prices briefly saw a typical safe-haven rally, but the rise could not be sustained. The market quickly reinterpreted the event’s nature. Investors did not view it as a persistent geopolitical shock; instead, they were more likely to treat it as an inflation event driven by energy prices. This shift pushed up real yields, strengthened the dollar, and weakened market expectations for rate cuts—factors all negative for gold performance.
Gold had already accumulated significant gains before the event, limiting room for additional safe-haven capital inflows. Expectations are that gold’s price trend will continue to be driven by both macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. In the short term, the direction of real yields and central bank policy expectations will be key, and it will also be important to watch energy prices and the dollar. The firm still views gold as a strategic allocation, not a short-term trading tool. Structural demand from central banks worldwide, together with unclear policy prospects, provides some support for gold prices, even if short-term price action may remain volatile.
Hong Kong stocks and ADR market updates continue—see: next page
Intraday performance:
【22:15】Trump: If U.S.-Iran talks break down, we will continue bombing—Dow rebounds 890 points; oil falls by 10%
【21:30】Trump postpones the final deadline by 5 days, saying there are negotiations with Iran—Dow rebounds 744 points; oil falls by 8%
【20:10】Iran denies holding talks—Dow futures gains narrow; oil falls 5%
【19:10】Trump: Progress in talks with Iran, postpones final deadline by 5 days—Dow futures flip up 1,207 points; Nasdaq futures up 2.2%; oil plunges by 10%
【14:13】Dow futures down 200 points to 45,693; S&P 500 futures down 37 points to 6,521; Nasdaq futures down 167 points, or 0.7%, to 23,934.
【14:13】New York futures oil up 0.8% to $98.97; Brent futures up 0.6% to $112.85.
【14:13】【Gold price trend】Spot gold falls below $4,300, erasing this year’s gains; Hong Kong’s two-session close gold price drops another 1,000 yuan, with the price retreating by 10,000 yuan from the high
【13:25】【Oil price trend】Goldman Sachs warns the oil market faces the “biggest supply shock in history”—upgrades its 2026 Brent crude forecast to $85
【13:15】【Iran crisis】IEA director: More than 40 energy assets in the Middle East are “severely damaged”—the conflict impact equals the combined effect of the two oil crises of the 1970s plus the 2022 Russia-Ukraine crisis
【11:40】【Japanese yen trend】Yen vs. Hong Kong dollar at around 4.9—Japan officials use “export rhetoric” again: take any necessary measures to address FX volatility
【11:21】【Iran crisis】Japan and South Korea stock markets have a “black Monday”—Korean stocks fall again 5%, triggering the 6th “Sidecar” mechanism this year; Nikkei had dropped by more than 2,600 points
【10:56】【AI + chips】Musk: Terafab project will be implemented in Austin—Tesla and SpaceX jointly operate
【07:30】【Iran crisis】Countdown to the final deadline: 1 day. Trump threatens each other with Iran; strikes on civilian infrastructure. Oil prices remain volatile (updates continue)
【07:30】【Global preview for the week ahead one week】Keep focusing on the Middle East war situation, watch remarks from Fed officials; U.S. March manufacturing PMI to be released on Tuesday
【07:30】Iran war escalates. On Friday, U.S. President Trump told reporters, “I don’t want a ceasefire.” With energy price volatility, the Dow’s decline at one point widened to more than 600 points; the U.S. long-term Treasury yield hit a six-month high, and the latest market forecast has the probability of a rate hike in September at 40%. The Dow closed down 443 points to 45,577; the S&P 500 fell 1.51%, and the Nasdaq slid 2.01%.
Watch U.S. stocks close:
U.S. stock market highlights last week—see: U.S. stocks close | Trump says he doesn’t want a ceasefire; Dow down 443 points; U.S. long-term Treasury yields hit a six-month high, with a 40% chance of a rate hike in September