Everbright Futures: Soft Commodities Daily Report for March 27

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Sugar:

(Zhang Xiaojin, Qualification Number: F0306200; Trading Consulting Qualification Number: Z0000082)

In terms of spot prices, the Guangxi Sugar Group quotes a range of 5420 to 5490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Yunnan Sugar Group quotes 5280 to 5330 yuan/ton, with some increasing by 10 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotes from processing sugar factories range from 5680 to 5880 yuan/ton, with some decreasing by 10 yuan/ton. The regional situation remains complex and changeable, and this weekend is a key time node for multiple parties to announce important matters, causing market anxiety to rise again. Brazil is about to start its sugarcane crushing season, and while domestic gasoline prices in Brazil have not yet adjusted, the situation remains complex and ongoing, with market concerns unchanged, and raw sugar prices still maintaining a relatively strong pattern. Domestically, the market is relatively cautious, macro disturbances are not cooling down, and domestic sugar factories are gradually ending their crushing, with inventory pressure remaining, patiently waiting for trading opportunities while being mindful of systemic risks.

Cotton:

(Sun Chengzhen, Qualification Number: F03099994; Trading Consulting Qualification Number: Z0021057)

On Thursday, ICE cotton rose by 1.85%, closing at 69.44 cents per pound. The main contract for Zheng cotton increased by 0.72%, closing at 15420 yuan/ton, with the main contract positions decreasing by 3264 contracts to 550,400 contracts. The spot price index for cotton 3128B is 16560 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous day. In the international market, disturbances in the Middle East continue and are repetitive, with Trump stating that the US and Iran are negotiating, paying attention to the subsequent evolution of events. Gold, crude oil, and the US dollar index are all fluctuating repeatedly, and the ICE cotton futures price is gradually moving upward. In the domestic market, the focus of Zheng cotton futures prices is slightly shifting upward. New cotton planting is about to begin, and the market’s focus is gradually shifting to the willingness for new cotton planting and the forecast of the supply-demand pattern for the new year. Currently, it seems that the decrease in cotton planting area in Xinjiang for 2026 has basically become a certainty, but the extent of the reduction remains in doubt. It is generally expected that the supply-demand pattern for cotton in China for the 2026/27 year will narrow year-on-year, thus providing some upward space for cotton prices in the medium to long term. In the short term, there are both bullish and bearish factors, lacking a unilateral upward driving force, and it is expected that Zheng cotton will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with some upward space still available.

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Editor: Li Tiemin