He Boxing: Gold and crude oil price trend analysis for today and Friday's closing, along with long and short trading suggestions

Latest Trend Analysis of Gold:

On March 27, gold news analysis: On Friday, in the Asian market morning, spot gold traded around $4382 per ounce. On Thursday (March 26), U.S. President Trump announced that at Iran’s request, he would extend the deadline for striking Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to April 6, which on the surface appeared to be a goodwill gesture indicating progress in peace negotiations. However, spot gold plummeted 2.8% that day to $4377.85 per ounce, and April futures gold fell sharply by 3.9% to $4376.3 per ounce. Since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israel war against Iran, gold has accumulated a decline of 17%, completely breaking the traditional logic of safe-haven assets during geopolitical conflicts. In this “fog of war,” oil prices soared, inflation alarms went off, and the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates within the year rose to 40%, helping the dollar index achieve three consecutive days of gains, which significantly pressured gold prices.

Gold technical analysis: Reviewing yesterday’s market details, gold opened at 4506.3 points in the morning, and after the opening, bulls gained momentum first, pushing the price steadily upward, reaching a high of 4545.1 points, showing a brief upward trend. However, selling pressure quickly emerged at high levels, and the bullish momentum could not be sustained, leading to a strong oscillation and decline. The buying support was weak, and prices gradually dipped, with the daily low reaching 4350.4 points, marking a new recent low in the correction. In the late trading period, there was a slight rebound that digested some bearish momentum, ultimately closing at 4381.2 points for the day.

From the candlestick pattern perspective, yesterday’s daily candle formed a large bearish candle with a longer upper shadow than lower shadow. According to candlestick technical analysis, the core feature of a large bearish candle is that the closing price is significantly lower than the opening price, indicating that the bears are dominant, with strong selling intent and relatively weak buying. The longer upper shadow indicates strong selling pressure at high levels—bulls attempted to push prices higher but were successfully suppressed by bears, making it difficult to break through the resistance at high levels; it also reflects that there is some buying support below, as evidenced by the lower shadow formed by the slight late-session rally, indicating that there is short-term support around 4350.4 points, but the support is limited and could not change the overall bearish dominance. After this pattern concludes, there is still room for further correction in the short term. Based on the current spot gold data, yesterday’s large price fluctuations formed a reasonable connection with today’s opening price, further confirming the continuation of the short-term bearish trend.

From a deeper technical perspective, the large bearish candle with a longer upper shadow than lower shadow appeared in the high area following previous oscillations upward, representing a typical short-term top reversal signal, suggesting that bullish momentum is beginning to weaken and bearish forces are gradually gaining an advantage. Considering the recent market environment, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, and other factors continue to impact the gold market, increasing the cost of holding gold and further suppressing gold prices. This is also an important external factor for the rapid drop in gold prices after yesterday’s surge. Additionally, from short-term technical indicators, after the gold price fell below key recent support levels, bearish momentum was further released. Although there was a slight rebound in the late session, it was a weak correction that did not change the overall downward trend. In the short term, further downward risks need to be monitored, which aligns with the current overall pattern of the gold market being “bearish dominant, weak oscillating.”

Combining yesterday’s market trends, candlestick pattern signals, market sentiment, and external influencing factors, today’s operational strategy for gold focuses on short positions. Place trades near the support levels below, strictly control risk, and balance profits with risk prevention. In terms of price levels, today, short positions can be attempted when the market rises to 4475 points, with stop-loss set at 4485 points, slightly above yesterday’s high, effectively guarding against the risk of an unexpected breakout above resistance levels, ensuring that trading risks are manageable. This is also a specific application of the principle of “precise risk control, trend-following layout” in a downward oscillating market.

In terms of target levels, the short-term focus is primarily on the 4420 points and 4400 points, which are key support zones for recent oscillations and also important targets for short-term corrections. If the market successfully reaches these two levels, profits can be taken based on market momentum; if the market continues to decline and approaches around 4320 points, it is recommended to exit short positions and prepare to establish long positions. At this time, the area around 4320 points serves as a key support area for the recent correction, and the short-term correction momentum is likely to be exhausted. Combined with the buying signal from the slight late-session rebound, there is potential for short-term stabilization, representing a prime opportunity for buying on dips. However, it is also necessary to be cautious of further downward risks if the support level is breached, and long positions should be strictly managed with stop-loss orders to guard against unexpected fluctuations. Overall, today’s short-term operational strategy for gold is suggested to focus on selling on rebounds, supplemented by buying on dips, with short-term resistance to be observed at the upper levels of 4430-4480 and short-term support at the lower levels of 4330-4280.

Latest Trend Analysis of Crude Oil:

Crude oil news analysis: On Friday (Beijing time, March 27), in the Asian market morning, U.S. crude oil traded around $93.40 per barrel. Oil prices rose on Thursday as market hopes for a swift end to the Middle East war gradually faded. Oil prices rose on Thursday, with Brent crude futures up 5.7% to $108.01 per barrel, and U.S. crude futures up 4.6% to $94.48 per barrel, influenced by the fading market hopes for a quick end to the Middle East war.

Crude oil technical analysis: From the daily chart perspective, oil prices surged above $110 due to geopolitical macro influences. The moving average system is diverging upward, with the mid-term trend objectively directed upward. The trend shows minor oscillations at high levels, with strong bullish momentum. It is expected that the mid-term trend will continue to maintain a bullish rhythm. The short-term (1H) trend is maintaining a low-level oscillation consolidation, presenting a minor oscillation rhythm, with the subjective trend direction remaining downward. The short-term objective trend is in a horizontal oscillation rhythm. The MACD indicator is gradually crossing above the zero line, with a gentle slope, and bullish momentum is gradually strengthening. It is anticipated that the intraday crude oil trend will continue to predominantly decline. In summary, today’s operational strategy for crude oil is suggested to focus on buying on dips, supplemented by selling on rebounds, with short-term resistance observed at the upper levels of 98.0-103.0 and short-term support at the lower levels of 90.0-85.0.

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Editor: Chen Ping