Has the unprecedented semiconductor memory bubble arrived?

The price of DRAM semiconductor memory further increased. The wholesale transaction prices for indicator products in November–December 2025 rose by 40% compared with the prices reached in the previous round of negotiations in September. Major global companies are prioritizing deliveries of artificial intelligence (AI) servers for data centers, resulting in insufficient supply of indicator products for everyday-use fields such as personal computers (PCs). Buyers find it difficult to secure the required quantities.

DRAM is installed in devices such as PCs, smartphones, and data-center server equipment for the temporary storage of data. Wholesale transaction prices are determined through monthly or quarterly negotiations among memory manufacturers as sellers, device manufacturers as buyers, and module makers.

Because of tight supply relative to demand, a rare situation occurred in October 2025 in which wholesale transaction prices could not be formed. Although prices were set for November–December, “we failed to procure the quantity we wanted” (an executive of an electronic trading company). Others have also pointed out that DDR5 and prior-generation DDR3 increased by 40% to 2 times, and by 2 to 4 times respectively, in October–December 2025 compared with the previous quarter. The head of another trading company said, “An unprecedented semiconductor memory bubble that extends beyond indicator products has already arrived.”

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