European Central Bank Survey: Eurozone Inflation Expectations Eased Before Iran War

Investing.com - The European Central Bank’s February 2026 consumer expectations survey shows a decrease in inflation expectations, with the median expectation for the next 12 months dropping from 2.6% in January to 2.5%.

The survey was conducted from February 5 to March 3, with most responses collected before the outbreak of the Middle East war on February 28, approximately 97% of responses were recorded prior to that date.

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Consumers’ median perception of inflation over the past 12 months remains unchanged at 3.0%. Inflation expectations for the next three years decreased from 2.6% to 2.5%, while the five-year expectation remained at 2.3%.

Low-income respondents continue to report higher inflation perceptions and short-term expectations than high-income groups, a pattern that has been in place since 2023. Respondents aged 18-34 reported lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older groups.

The nominal income growth expectation for the next 12 months remains unchanged at 1.2%. The perception of nominal spending growth over the past 12 months decreased from 4.9% in January to 4.6%, while the expected spending growth for the next 12 months rose from 3.4% to 3.5%.

The economic growth expectation for the next 12 months has improved, rising from -1.1% in January to -0.9%. The expected unemployment rate for the next 12 months fell from 11.0% to 10.8%. Low-income households expect an unemployment rate of 13.1%, while high-income households expect 9.2%.

The expected house price growth for the next 12 months decreased from 3.7% in January to 3.6%. The expected mortgage rate remains unchanged at 4.7%. Low-income households expect a mortgage rate of 5.5% after 12 months, while high-income households expect 4.2%.

The reported net percentage of households experiencing tighter credit access over the past 12 months has decreased, and the expected percentage of households anticipating tighter credit conditions in the next 12 months has also decreased.

The survey covers approximately 19,000 adult consumers from 11 Eurozone countries: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, and Finland.

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