HBAR Price Eyes Recovery: How the Falling Wedge Pattern Holds the Key After 35% Correction

Hedera (HBAR) has tumbled over a third since mid-January amid the broader crypto market downturn, with losses accelerating between late January and early February. From its November peak, the token now sits down more than 40%, and short-term momentum has stalled. Yet beneath the surface, technical patterns suggest a potential turnaround—specifically, the falling wedge structure that continues to contain price action. Whether this pattern confirms a rebound or collapses into deeper losses depends on volume support, capital flows, and whether critical price levels hold steady.

The Falling Wedge Pattern: Why Dip Buyers Still Matter

At the core of HBAR’s technical case lies a falling wedge formation that has been in place since late October 2025. This pattern develops when prices generate lower highs and lower lows over time, but the range between them gradually narrows—a classic signal that selling pressure is weakening. Despite the January crash, HBAR has remained locked inside this structure, preserving the bullish setup for a potential bounce.

This durability is supported by money flow metrics. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks whether institutional capital is flowing into or out of an asset, has painted a clear divergence since late December. As HBAR’s price declined between December 30 and February 2, the CMF actually trended higher—signaling that big money continued accumulating even as headlines screamed lower. While CMF recently dipped below its rising trend and briefly turned negative, it remains hovering near neutral territory, suggesting buyers are still present beneath the surface.

The Money Flow Index (MFI), which measures dip-buying intensity, reinforces this picture. Over the past three months, HBAR’s price has continued trending downward while MFI has climbed—another bullish divergence. The indicator currently rests near 41, and a move above 54 would establish a higher high and strengthen the case for accumulation. Together, CMF and MFI indicate that traders haven’t abandoned HBAR; they’re quietly stacking tokens as prices correct inside the falling wedge.

The Volume Problem: When Capital Flows Turn Against The Pattern

Yet money flow indicators tell only part of the story. The On-Balance Volume (OBV)—which measures whether trading volume supports price trends—reveals a troubling disconnect. Since October, OBV has trended consistently lower, and on January 29, it broke below a key descending trendline. This bearish divergence means that each rally attempt has lacked the volume conviction needed to sustain gains. Every upward move has felt weak, unable to generate real buying pressure.

This weakness manifests clearly in spot exchange flows. From late October through the first week of February, HBAR experienced 14 consecutive weeks of net outflows—more tokens leaving exchanges than entering them. This reflects the market’s steady accumulation phase as prices fell, aligning perfectly with the bullish money flow signals discussed earlier. However, weakening OBV continuously capped rallies during this entire period. The pattern itself remained intact, but the falling wedge was losing its propulsive power.

The turning point arrived on February 2, when HBAR finally recorded meaningful net inflows of approximately $749,000—the first such week since October. This ended a three-month outflow streak and marked a potential shift from patient accumulation to demand readiness. Yet this inflow reversal also explains why OBV broke its descending trendline at precisely that moment. Without consistent outflow pressure to absorb, the market is no longer supporting upward moves as reliably as before.

Current Price Action: Mixed Signals and Cautious Optimism

Current data from March 17 shows HBAR trading at $0.10, up 4.36% over the past 24 hours—a modest but meaningful bounce from lows. This price sits within the upper-middle range of the falling wedge pattern, neither confirming a breakout nor signaling imminent collapse. The near-term price action remains fluid, balanced between bullish divergences (CMF, MFI) and a breakdown in volume support (OBV, spot flows).

The divergence between money flow strength and volume weakness creates an uncomfortable environment for traders. Buyers are present—CMF and MFI prove it—but they lack the conviction (or perhaps the conviction translates to fewer tokens due to higher prices) to drive volume higher. This mismatch suggests any rally could stall rather quickly if resistance emerges.

Critical Price Levels That Will Define the Next Move

Support and resistance now become paramount. On the downside, the $0.076 level represents the key support anchor. As long as HBAR holds above this point and CMF/MFI continue improving, rebound attempts remain viable. However, a decisive break below $0.076 would signal sellers reasserting control—a scenario OBV’s weakness is already hinting at. Such a move would open downside targets near $0.062, with further weakness possible toward $0.043.

Upside resistance begins at $0.090, a level that has repeatedly capped rallies since January. Reclaiming this area would signal early confidence returning and would be the first sign that the falling wedge is shifting into recovery mode. Above $0.090, the major hurdle sits at $0.107. A sustained break above $0.107 would confirm an actual breakout from the falling wedge pattern itself. Should that occur, the pattern’s measured target suggests a potential 52% rally over the medium term.

The Bottom Line: The Falling Wedge Remains Intact, But Questions Linger

For now, the falling wedge pattern preserves HBAR’s bullish setup. Money flow indicators show buyers are still interested, and the pattern structure itself resists breaking lower. Yet volume has become the weak link in the bull case—OBV has broken down, and spot flows have turned positive (selling) after months of negative flows (buying).

This creates a situation where the falling wedge may hold as a floor, but rallies could struggle to accelerate without renewed volume conviction. HBAR price recovery is possible and perhaps likely if $0.076 support holds; however, breaking through resistance at $0.090 and especially $0.107 will require more than just the current money flow signals. Until volume confirms these moves, the falling wedge will remain a technical handhold rather than a launcher for significant gains.