3.13 Retrospective: The Deeper Meaning Behind Henan Energy's Daily Limit Down

March 13 Review [Taogu Ba]

Hello everyone, I am Cycle Wei Yang, trading only with strategic cycles.

Every month, the market has 10 stocks that double in value. The qualities of these doubling stocks: relentless self-improvement, virtue and tolerance.

First, let’s discuss yesterday’s viewpoint:

Yesterday’s opinion on Yunnan Energy Holdings: because of consistency, the expected difference is lost; divergence creates expected differences.

Those familiar with me know I never mention top-topping stocks, nor do I believe in relying on technical analysis for cycle traders’ emotions—Tao (the big environment and cycle) outweighs technique.

But now, since Tao (the macro environment and big cycle) itself is weak, technique needs to be appropriately considered. Previously, some brothers in the comment area asked how to better trade 20cm (20-centimeter stocks).

20cm also depends on the overall cycle environment and its position. When the environment is good, tolerance is high; not only can 20cm stocks hit large consecutive limits and even break and rebound, but in poor environments, only one or two survival points remain, making randomness more likely. In uncertain situations, arbitraging 20cm stocks becomes very difficult.

This is a post from March 10. When Ling Wei entered a 100% gain in 10 days, I judged he would oscillate and not continue accelerating. But in the past few days, he kept falling.

This is a specific manifestation of space and environment suppression.

Everyone says to learn quantitative models now, but in such recent market conditions, quant strategies are not necessarily as effective as before. The obvious return rates are no longer comparable to those before January.

This oscillation + rotation pulse makes all kinds of funds uncomfortable. I am relatively lucky to have been consistently invested in Yunnan Energy Holdings because I saw its emotional carrier and temperament.

Yesterday, I also saw its old age and frailty, so I exited in time. Today, I avoided the limit-down.

Some people exited today or continued to stay with Yunnan Energy. There’s no right or wrong—just different understandings lead to different responses. I think I’ve gained enough points and don’t want to continue this volatility, so I’m out. If you think your profit is enough, you can choose to exit after the weakness. Whatever response you choose, accept the outcome. I have a habit of not chasing tail-end moves.

Yunnan Energy told me yesterday at 17.88: “Goodbye,” and today’s limit-down feels more like a farewell to the past. The so-called old must go for the new to come.

If one cycle ends and the next begins, where will the starting point of the new cycle be? Where will the breakthrough come from?

1. Keli Co., Tongyuan Oil—when the index plunged at the end of the day, they instead moved against the trend, rising sharply. This is a battle of funds, with the weekend’s external market continuing to ferment. To avoid repeating past mistakes—losing the initiative over the weekend and then being caught off guard on Monday with a big rise followed by a plunge—everyone is now smarter. They pick stocks first; if Monday’s performance doesn’t meet expectations, they sell. If it meets expectations, they have the initiative… It’s a fierce game of human intelligence.

Could it start with the war or oil? After all, it might still be oil.

2. A new leader appears on the March 10 list—20/30 leading the cycle to rise suddenly.

The specific direction is unclear; we wait for the market to give clear signals…

In the future, it may not be the only recognizable carrier. I also include other stocks I think are decent in this article. Not a fixed pattern; I only focus when the emotional cycle and the carrier are aligned.

If you have questions, leave a comment. If possible, remember to like, support, and tip. Every support from you is my motivation for long-term output. Wishing you a bright future in 2026!