Recent US data is sending a confusing signal to the market.


Inflation is still not cooling fast enough, but at the same time economic growth is clearly losing speed.
That’s the kind of combination markets dislike the most because it creates maximum uncertainty.
When prices stay elevated while the economy begins to slow, the risk of stagflation starts entering the conversation.
And that puts the Federal Reserve in a tough position.
Lower rates to support growth; inflation could go up again.
Keep rates high to control inflation; the economy slowdown could get worse.
But if the economy continues to weaken from here, the pressure on the Fed will only increase.
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