Tonight's US PCE data may unexpectedly rise, adding uncertainty to the Federal Reserve's rate cut prospects

MarsBitNews · 2026-03-13T12:14:30+00:00

The US will release January PCE data on March 13, with expectations of a 2.9% year-over-year increase and 0.3% month-over-month increase. Although CPI indicates easing inflation, core PCE may rise to 3.1% since PCE places greater emphasis on goods prices. A rebound in inflation could impact Fed rate-cut expectations, while Middle East conflicts have driven up oil prices, increasing future inflation risks.

MarsBitNews

2026-03-13 12:14:30

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Mars Finance News: On March 13th, Friday at 8:30 PM Beijing time, the United States will release January PCE data. The market expects PCE to increase by 2.9% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month; core PCE may rise to 3.1% year-over-year, the largest increase since April 2024. Analysis indicates that although recent CPI data shows inflation pressures easing, because PCE assigns a higher weight to goods prices, the rise in prices for items like software and jewelry could boost core PCE. If core PCE year-over-year significantly exceeds CPI, the gap may reach its widest in decades. Since the Federal Reserve focuses more on the PCE indicator when setting policies, a rebound in inflation could weaken expectations of rate cuts this year. Meanwhile, conflicts in the Middle East have driven up oil prices and may further increase costs for energy, transportation, and food, bringing new upside risks to future inflation trends.

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