#我在Gate广场过新年 Bitcoin's rise is driven by consensus-driven capital inflows; the larger the market cap, the more capital is needed for further increases.

It reached 100,000 in February 2025, and from May to November, it fluctuated between 100,000 and 120,000, accumulating a massive amount of trapped positions. Now that it has fallen to 60,000 and is trying to rebound, which big funds would want to be the bagholders?
During the drop from 98,000 to 60,000, there was a historic level of panic selling pressure. The largest single-day turnover in two years occurred at the 60,000 level, indicating many people still believe in this support level.
However, the rebound only reached 72,000 before stopping abruptly.
What does this imply?
While the support level consensus is strong, a bear market is still a bear market. Profit-taking is still significant, and selling pressure remains high. Without enough big players entering the market, a true reversal cannot happen.
Currently, the three main drivers in the crypto space are liquidity, attention, and the chip structure. Each one is worse than the last. Short-term, don’t even bother; long-term, how do you define it? If 90% of the trapped positions decide to cut losses now, it could be over in a month. If 90% choose to hold stubbornly, then at least wait a year.
Referring to the previous high point in November 2021, it took until May 2024 to break even. This round’s high of 126,000 will likely take until 2028 to break even. $BTC $ETH