#比特币下一步怎么走？ From a technical trend perspective, Bitcoin is currently in a critical long and short battle zone. The key technical indicators and important price levels are as follows:

1. Trend and Moving Average System
On the daily chart, Bitcoin's price remains below the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMA). The moving average system is diverging downward, indicating that the overall bearish trend has not yet undergone a fundamental reversal. The 200-week moving average is in the $58,000-$60,000 range, which is the core lifeline of Bitcoin's long-term trend and the market's currently strongest support level.
2. Core Volatility Indicators
- RSI Relative Strength Index:
On the daily chart, RSI is currently around 30, approaching the oversold zone, indicating a short-term rebound correction may be needed, but no reversal signal has formed yet;
- MACD Indicator: On the daily chart, MACD remains below the zero line, indicating the bearish structure has not changed, and selling pressure has not been fully released;
- KDJ Indicator: In a low, dulled state, showing the market is oversold, but the bearish momentum has not fully ceased.
3. Key Support and Resistance Levels
- Core Support Levels:
First support: $67,000, the lower boundary of recent consolidation;
Second strong support: $65,000, the starting point of the current rebound, breaking below this level would declare the rebound trend failed;
Ultimate lifeline: $60,000, the position of the 200-week moving average, also a market psychological threshold. Falling below this level would open the downside space, with a high probability of testing the $50,000 mark.
- Core Resistance Levels:
First resistance: $70,000, an integer level and the upper boundary of recent consolidation;
Second strong resistance: $72,500, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Standing firm here is necessary to confirm a short-term reversal;
Mid-term resistance: $75,000, a previous dense trading zone. Breaking through this level could open further upside potential.

Overall, Bitcoin is currently in a core battle zone between $60,000 and $74,000. In the short term, it is likely to maintain weak oscillation, with the direction depending on breakthroughs of key price levels and capital flow conditions.

Market Outlook: Increasing Bull-Bear Divergence, Key Thresholds Decide Direction
Currently, market institutions are highly divided on Bitcoin's future trend, mainly into two camps:
1. Pessimists: The bear market will continue, with lows possibly appearing by the end of 2026
Represented by "Big Short" Michael Burry and Standard Chartered Bank, pessimistic institutions believe that Bitcoin's current decline is not over, and the bear market may extend into 2027.
Standard Chartered Bank warns that Bitcoin prices could face further pressure in the coming months, possibly dropping to $50,000 before stabilizing;
Technical analyst Alex Thorn points out that if the critical support at $63,000 is broken, the downward channel will fully open, targeting the $40,000-$35,000 range.
Historically, Bitcoin's bear markets tend to last 12-18 months. This correction began in October 2025, and according to this pattern, the bottom may appear at the end of 2026.
2. Cautiously Optimistic: Short-term oscillation to find a bottom, reversal expected in the second half of the year
Represented by Bernstein and Chainlink founders, optimistic institutions believe that the current decline is a normal correction within a bull market, and the long-term outlook remains positive. They see signs of extreme oversold conditions at the bottom, with less likelihood of further deep declines. In the first half of the year, Bitcoin is likely to oscillate between $60,000 and $75,000 to find a bottom; once the Federal Reserve begins a rate-cutting cycle in the second half, with global liquidity easing and Bitcoin ETF capital flowing back, Bitcoin could see a strong reversal.
Market Consensus: Whether bullish or bearish, market institutions generally agree on one core point: $60,000 is the current bull-bear dividing line for Bitcoin. This level is the long-term support at the 200-week moving average and a psychological threshold. Holding this level could lead to a phased rebound; breaking below it would trigger large-scale chain reactions of liquidations and start a new downward trend.