$DOT Weak consolidation in a long-term downtrend, with the price firmly suppressed by EMA20. The depth imbalance indicates heavy selling pressure above, currently only a continuation of the decline, with no effective reversal structure observed.

🎯Position: No Position (NoPosition)

Market Analysis: The price fluctuates narrowly between 1.26 and 1.29, but EMA20 (1.312) forms a clear dynamic resistance. The daily trend is clearly downward, falling from 2.28 to 1.28, a decline of nearly 44%, with no signs of weekly-level support.

Hardcore Logic: The key bearish logic lies in the market microstructure. The order book depth imbalance is as high as 18.02% (sell orders far thicker than buy orders), with buy orders concentrated at lower levels (1.26-1.27), indicating the market has no intention of actively absorbing at this price. The 4H K-line buy/sell ratio remains below 0.5, showing the decline is driven by genuine sell orders.

Although the funding rate is positive (0.0049%), the open interest (OI) remains stable rather than decreasing. Coupled with the price’s downward movement, this is not short-squeezing but rather longs passively holding losses, accumulating liquidity for further decline. RSI at 38.49 is in the weak zone but not oversold, leaving room for further downside.

Trading Plan: Currently, the structure favors contrarian long positions; short positions have poor risk-reward (support levels are too close). Wait for one of two signals: 1. A strong volume breakout and stabilization above EMA20 (1.312), confirming trend reversal. 2. A rapid drop below 1.20 into a key liquidity zone (near previous lows), with panic selling followed by volume-price divergence and buy absorption, then consider a left-side position. Otherwise, staying in no position is the only prudent choice.