CITIC Construction Investment: OpenAI's advertising monetization implementation accelerates large model commercialization

CITIC Securities pointed out that the first batch of ChatGPT advertisements will be launched in early February 2026, targeting only free and Go subscription tier users, initially charging based on CPM (impressions). CITIC Securities believes that OpenAI’s advertising monetization is relatively restrained, and responses do not give advertising weight, which better balances user experience; unlike the mobile internet era, the marginal cost of large models will not decrease with user growth. Instead, costs such as computing power will increase as user numbers and dialogue volume grow. Exploring the commercial value of free users is an essential step to open up the business closed loop, and diversified monetization methods like advertising are a necessary choice for large model companies with strong B2C attributes.

Full Text Below

CITIC Securities: OpenAI’s Commercialization of Advertising Accelerates Large Model Business Development

The first batch of ChatGPT ads will be launched in early February 2026, initially charging based on CPM, with a restrained approach. This article answers two highly discussed market questions: We believe OpenAI’s ad monetization is relatively restrained, and responses do not prioritize advertising weight, which balances user experience; unlike the mobile internet era, the marginal cost of large models will not decrease with user growth. Instead, costs such as computing power will increase as user numbers and dialogue volume grow. Exploring the commercial value of free users is an essential step to open up the business closed loop, and diversified monetization methods like advertising are a necessary choice for large model companies with strong B2C attributes.

1. Will it affect user experience and cause churn?

OpenAI prioritizes user experience in its ad monetization. ChatGPT responses are based on user intent and needs, without giving advertising weight; ads will be clearly marked, and in conjunction with content posted via OpenAI X accounts, users will see ads similar to bottom banners, not embedded in answers. We believe this strikes a good balance for user experience.

2. Why push for advertising monetization? Does this mean its commercialization faces bottlenecks?

1. The low marginal cost economic model of the mobile internet era is no longer applicable. The marginal cost of large models will not decrease to extremely low levels with user growth. Each round of ChatGPT conversation consumes inference costs, and the dialogue volume growth curve is steeper than WAU (weekly active users). Not all users pay for tokens consumed. From 2023 to 2025, OpenAI’s computing power consumption and revenue both grow at about 3 times per year, with no signs of the marginal diminishing returns typical of internet products. Failing to monetize this user base would lead to continued losses as user numbers and model capabilities increase. Representing B2C large models, OpenAI will push for diversified commercial monetization. According to The Information, by 2029, 40% of OpenAI’s revenue will come from ChatGPT subscriptions, 23% from Agent products, 19% from new products, and 18% from API calls.

2. Continuous large-scale investment in computing power makes commercialization urgent, and enhancing “self-sustaining” capabilities is critical. According to The Information, in H1 2025, OpenAI’s revenue was $4.3 billion, with a loss of $13.5 billion. It is expected that OpenAI’s computing costs will reach the trillion-dollar level by 2028. Last November, multiple media outlets reported that OpenAI plans to invest about $1.4 trillion over the next 8 years in data center construction. Based on cash flow break-even forecasts, OpenAI and Anthropic will still need to bear net outflows for more than 2 years. OpenAI and Anthropic are projected to achieve positive cash flow around 2030 and 2028, respectively, with Anthropic’s breakeven delayed by a year compared to last year’s forecast. From 2025 to 2028, OpenAI’s cash outflows will increase year by year, totaling over $100 billion.

Large model commercialization will accelerate, benefiting service providers and other companies, with larger AI revenue expected to materialize by 2026. As overseas leading model companies implement ad monetization, domestic giants are expected to follow quickly, focusing on advertising and marketing sectors, while continuing to monitor the commercialization of top large models.

1. When and in what form will OpenAI’s ads be implemented?

OpenAI’s first ads will be launched in early February on ChatGPT, initially charging based on CPM, with a restrained approach. According to The Information on January 21, OpenAI has begun selling ChatGPT ad slots to dozens of brands, initially charging per CPM, with the possibility of introducing pay-per-click models in the future. The restrained approach mainly reflects two points:

1. Prioritizing user experience. ChatGPT answers are based on user intent and needs, without giving advertising weight; ads will be clearly marked.

2. Limited open ad slots. During the trial phase, each advertiser’s budget is capped at $1 million, and a self-service system is not yet available; all cooperation requires manual engagement.

2. Why promote advertising monetization?

1. The low marginal cost economic model of the mobile internet era is no longer suitable. The marginal cost of large models will not decrease to extremely low levels with user growth. Ads serve as a way for free users to pay for the costs of computing power and other resources. Each ChatGPT conversation consumes inference costs, and as user numbers grow and models better meet user needs, dialogue volume increases more steeply than WAU. Not all users pay for tokens consumed. From 2023 to 2025, OpenAI’s computing power consumption and revenue both grow at about 3 times annually, with no signs of the marginal diminishing returns typical of internet products.

Over 90% of ChatGPT users are free. Monetizing this user base is essential for large model companies to complete the business loop. ChatGPT ads will initially target free users and the newly launched $8/month ChatGPT Go subscription. Plus, Pro, Business, and Enterprise users will not see ads. Last July, its WAU exceeded 700 million, but paid users were only 35 million, with a paid rate of about 5%. The company projects WAU will reach 2.6 billion by 2030, with 220 million paying users and a paid rate of about 8.5%, still relatively low. As model capabilities improve and user engagement deepens, free users’ token consumption will increase. Failing to monetize this segment would lead to ongoing losses. Representing B2C large models, OpenAI will push for diversified monetization. According to The Information, by 2029, 40% of OpenAI’s revenue will come from ChatGPT subscriptions, 23% from Agent products, 19% from new products (such as advertising, AI + e-commerce/healthcare scenarios), and 18% from API calls.

2. Continuous large-scale investment in computing power makes commercialization urgent, and improving “self-sustaining” capabilities is critical.

3. According to The Information, in H1 2025, OpenAI’s revenue was $4.3 billion, with a loss of $13.5 billion. It is expected that OpenAI’s computing costs will reach the trillion-dollar level by 2028. Last November, multiple media outlets reported that OpenAI plans to invest about $1.4 trillion over the next 8 years in data center construction. In the first three quarters of 2025, MiniMax’s revenue was $53.44 million, with an adjusted net loss of $186 million; Zhipu’s H1 2025 revenue was RMB 190 million, with a net loss of RMB 2.35 billion.

4. Based on cash flow break-even forecasts, overseas top large model companies OpenAI and Anthropic will need to continue bearing net outflows for more than 2 years. They are expected to achieve positive cash flow around 2030 and 2028, respectively, with Anthropic’s breakeven delayed by a year compared to last year’s forecast. From 2025 to 2028, OpenAI’s cash outflows will increase year by year, totaling over $100 billion.

3. Core viewpoints

Large model commercialization will accelerate, benefiting service providers and other companies, with larger-scale AI revenue expected by 2026. The low marginal cost unit economic model of the mobile internet era is no longer applicable. In the large model era, as user numbers grow, costs such as computing power also increase, and marginal costs will not drop to extremely low levels. Over 90% of OpenAI’s users are free, and it is projected that about 91.5% will remain free by 2030. Monetizing this user base is essential for completing the business loop. Coupled with ongoing large-scale investments by companies like OpenAI domestically and internationally, we expect accelerated commercialization of large models. As overseas leading model companies implement ad monetization, domestic giants are likely to follow quickly.

Focus on advertising and marketing sectors, while continuing to monitor the commercialization of top large models.

Risks include: insufficient copyright protection, unclear intellectual property rights, user privacy data leaks, disruption of collaborations with IP or celebrities, shifts in public aesthetic preferences, intensified competition, low user willingness to pay, difficulty changing consumption habits, corporate governance issues, subpar content launch performance, slower-than-expected development of generative AI technology, high product development difficulty, delays in product launch, rising marketing costs, talent attrition, increasing labor costs, policy and regulatory risks, underwhelming commercialization capabilities.

(Source: People’s Financial News)