Overview of ETH Technicals on January 31: Short-term bearish, medium-term consolidation, long-term trend intact; key levels at 2630 (strong support) → 2800 (bull-bear dividing line) → 2900 (strong resistance). Focus on high selling and low buying around key levels, with strict risk management.

I. Real-time Market (January 31, 12:00, UTC+8)

- Price: $2748, -2.8% intraday, -7.2% weekly, 24h low at 2634
- Volume: Trading volume significantly increased, panic selling emerging, liquidation rising
- Key signals: Break below 50-day moving average (118.71), slight rebound after testing 2630 support

II. Core Technical Indicators

- Trend (Daily): Lost the 50-day moving average, still above the 200-day moving average; short-term bearish, medium-term consolidating
- RSI (Daily): 37, approaching oversold, rebound probability rising but trend remains weak
- MACD (Daily): Histogram turning negative, bearish momentum strengthening, watch for divergence signals
- Support/Resistance: 2630 (strong support) → 2800 (bull-bear dividing line) → 2900 (strong resistance) → 3000 (strong resistance)

III. Actionable Trading Strategies (by cycle)

1. Short-term (Intraday)
- Rebound to 2800-2830 meets resistance, consider shorting, stop-loss at 2870, target 2680-2630
- Stabilize at 2630 with light positions for long, stop-loss at 2600, target 2750-2800
2. Medium-term (1-2 weeks)
- Build positions gradually at 2630-2700, stop-loss at 2580, target 2880-2900
- Break above 2900 for re-entry, confirm with pullback, target 3100+
3. Risk Management
- Position size ≤30%, single trade stop-loss ≤2%
- Monitor Federal Reserve rate decisions and ETF fund flows, beware of black swan events

IV. Time Cycle Outlook

- Short-term (1-3 days): Defense of 2630, stabilize then rebound to 2800, if lost, watch 2550-2600
- Medium-term (1-2 weeks): Consolidation between 2630-2900, awaiting trend direction
- Long-term (1-3 months): Supported by halving narrative, 200-day moving average unbroken, trend not reversed

V. Trading Priority

1. Observe the validity of 2630 support, avoid rushing to bottom fish
2. Rebound to 2800-2830, consider partial profit-taking or shorting
3. If 2630 stabilizes, try small long positions with strict stop-loss