21Shares releases 2026 XRP price forecast: How will regulation and ETFs drive the market?

A well-known asset management firm, 21Shares, recently released a comprehensive XRP market outlook report for 2026, providing price forecasts based on different scenarios. The report suggests that with the long-standing SEC lawsuit finally resolved in August 2025, the legal clouds suppressing XRP’s price have dissipated, and assets are reopening to US institutions, regulated funds, banks, and payment companies. This paves the way for XRP to enter a market-driven price discovery phase.

Price Framework from an Institutional Perspective

In its report, 21Shares employs scenario analysis rather than a single point forecast, outlining three possible paths for XRP’s performance in 2026. The firm assigns a 50% probability to the “base case,” with an expected price of up to $2.45. Achieving this scenario depends on regulatory stability, supporting continuous ETF capital inflows, and the gradual growth of XRP’s utility value.

Under the “bullish scenario,” 21Shares assigns a 30% probability, with a target price set at $2.69. This scenario requires widespread adoption of real-world assets (RWA) by institutions and a market supply that approaches exhaustion, triggering a structural revaluation of value.

The Triple Engine: Core Logic Driving the Forecast

21Shares’ analysis indicates that XRP’s price trajectory in 2026 will depend on three interacting pillars: regulatory clarity and capital accessibility, strong demand for spot ETFs, and the real-world adoption of stablecoins and RWAs.

Regulatory clarity is the primary catalyst. The conclusion of the SEC lawsuit removes the long-standing structural ceiling suppressing XRP’s market.

The launch of US XRP spot ETFs has fundamentally changed the demand landscape for this asset. These products accumulated over $1.3 billion in assets under management in their first month and set a record with 55 consecutive days of net capital inflows.

21Shares believes that XRP reserves on exchanges have fallen to a seven-year low of approximately 1.7 billion tokens, which clashes with institutional demand generated through ETFs, forming a major engine for nonlinear price revaluation in 2026.

Ecosystem Value Foundations: More Than Just Payments

The long-term value of XRP is increasingly anchored in its role as a tokenized global financial infrastructure. The XRP Ledger aims to be a neutral bridge, prioritizing liquidity, speed, and compliance. Its ecosystem’s stablecoin RLUSD has shown explosive growth, with market capitalization soaring from $72 million to $1.38 billion in less than a year, an increase of over 1,800%, providing high-quality collateral for professional financial applications.

Meanwhile, the decentralized finance ecosystem on XRPL is expanding rapidly, with total locked value increasing nearly 100 times over the past two years, recently surpassing the $100 million milestone. Its multi-purpose token standards support institutions directly issuing and managing bonds, stocks, and other complex RWAs.

Market Status and Potential Challenges

According to Gate data, as of January 29, 2026, XRP’s current price is $1.87. This is somewhat below 21Shares’ bullish target but also reflects the market digesting various information.

Current market sentiment presents a complex picture. On one hand, XRP spot ETF funds continue to see remarkable net inflows, demonstrating institutional demand resilience. On the other hand, prices face short-term pressure. From a technical analysis perspective, XRP is at a critical decision point, with a clear support zone around $1.88–$1.89, which has successfully resisted selling pressure multiple times.

21Shares also highlights potential risks. The report suggests that if ETF capital inflows peak or reverse, it could weaken the primary reflective price engine. Additionally, if XRPL fails to attract substantial RWA applications, it may not be fully utilized as a settlement layer. Currently, it faces competition from ecosystems like Canton and Solana.

Beyond Predictions: XRP’s Macro Narrative and Competitive Positioning

A recent analysis by Google’s Gemini AI model positions XRP as a more “aggressive” investment choice compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum. The core logic is that XRP’s long-term regulatory hurdles have been eliminated, and combined with its established practical foundation in cross-border payments, it could lead to a larger revaluation potential.

Looking ahead to 2026, different analytical models offer diverse expectations. Gate’s analysis suggests XRP may remain volatile, with downside risks possibly pushing it toward $1.40, while upside potential could challenge the previous high of $4.00 by the end of the year. Some more aggressive views posit that if ETF capital flows for XRP remain strong, the token’s price could see significant gains in a shorter timeframe.

Based on comprehensive analysis of Gate’s data, XRP’s price range in 2026 could be between $1.61 and $1.93. Longer term, by 2031, XRP’s price might fluctuate up to $4.62.

As of January 29, 2026, Gate’s data shows XRP trading at $1.87, with a market cap of approximately $113.59 billion, ranking among the top in global digital assets. The exchange’s XRP reserves have fallen to a seven-year low, with only about 1.7 billion tokens remaining. Meanwhile, the US spot XRP ETF’s capital inflow record remains unbroken, with 55 days of continuous net inflows. The $2.69 bullish target from the 21Shares report quietly hangs over the 2026 price chart, awaiting market validation.