January 22, 2026 09:05 BTC & ETH Retailer Probability of Bullish/Bearish Today (Daily One or Two Articles)

After testing the bottom yesterday, BTC found strong support around 87,250, currently rebounding to the 90,100 level, and back above the BOLL middle band;
ETH is also rebounding, from a low of 2,866 back up to 3,018, barely crossing the 3,000 psychological threshold.
From a structural perspective: this is a continuation of a standard “oversold rebound,” with the current price pressing against a critical short-term resistance level (BTC 90,500 / ETH 3,060). The KDJ indicator is in the overbought zone at high levels, though no death cross has occurred, facing a directional choice.
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📊 Today’s (before US stock market open) probability assessment (based on real-time market structure)
BTC
* Probability of a direct breakthrough and stabilization (holding above 90,800) ≈ 35%
* Probability of resistance and pullback / testing the midline (around 89,000) ≈ 45%
* Probability of narrow sideways trading at high levels (around 90,000 with a few hundred points variation) ≈ 20%
ETH
* Probability of following through with a breakout (holding above 3,060) ≈ 35%
* Probability of resistance and pullback / testing around 2,950 ≈ 45%
* Probability of weak oscillation ≈ 20%
Conclusion: The rebound has reached the “deep water zone,” with obvious resistance above (BOLL upper band and previous highs). Chasing gains here offers a poor risk-reward ratio; the main strategy is to prevent a pullback.
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🎯 Most practical retail trader advice (ranked by probability)
1️⃣ The safest (current optimal solution) → Observe resistance levels, do not chase highs
* BTC
* Current price 90,100, with minimal space above resistance at 90,600/90,800.
* Unless there is a volume breakout above 91,000, it’s considered a “rebound top risk zone.”
* ETH
* Resistance zone: 3,060–3,080.
* Although it has reclaimed 3,000, there is dense short-term trapped positions above, making long positions akin to “snatching food from a tiger’s mouth.”
👉 For most retail traders: this morning’s rally is for observation, not for chasing.
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2️⃣ Aggressive short-term → Test short positions at key resistance levels (aim for a pullback)
* BTC
* If it hits resistance around 90,600–90,800 (long upper shadow) → try short positions with light size.
* Targets: 89,300 (midline) → 88,800.
* Stop-loss: above 91,200.
* ETH
* If it rebounds to 3,060–3,080 and faces resistance → try short positions with light size.
* Targets: 2,970 → 2,930.
* Stop-loss: above 3,110.
⚠️ Note: For counter-trend trades (since short-term is rising), keep positions light and take profits quickly.
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3️⃣ Want to go long → Wait patiently for a pullback confirmation
* BTC
* Do not open long positions above 90,000.
* Only consider entering longs after a pullback and stabilization around 88,800–89,000 (BOLL midline support).
* ETH
* Focus on support around 2,950–2,970; only consider entering if the pullback does not break below.
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🧠 One-sentence mindset summary
The panic from yesterday hasn’t fully subsided, and today’s FOMO (fear of missing out) is back? Don’t rush.
Currently, the K-line has entered the “fish tail” stage—tasteless to hold, but a pity to abandon; at 90,100, the bullish ceiling is set, and the bearish floor is below. Experts are waiting at both ends (resistance or support), only retail traders go crazy in the middle.
Published on: January 22, 2026 09:05
(Daily one or two articles)