The factors explaining the rise of Bitcoin at the beginning of 2026

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: Factors Explaining Bitcoin’s Rise at the Beginning of 2026 Original Link: Bitcoin spent much of the last quarter of 2025 “in limbo.” After a sharp drop in October and November, it stagnated for weeks, with lower volume and a defensive mood among investors, until it gradually started to recover in December. Now, in 2026, the world’s leading cryptocurrency is gaining momentum again and trying to approach the symbolic level of US$ 100,000.

This Wednesday (14), Bitcoin again surpassed the US$ 95,000 mark and reached its highest price in two months, with the market showing signs that it is willing to take more risks. According to market analysts, the CPI (consumer inflation data in the US) came in line with expectations and has already started to boost the market, due to the increased likelihood of future interest rate cuts, which benefits assets like Bitcoin.

Additionally, there were strong inflows into BTC ETFs and an increased probability of the approval of the bill to regulate the crypto market in the US. Predictions market bets exceeded 55% probability of the bill being approved in the Senate after senators presented a more favorable draft.

Geopolitical tensions increase demand for alternative assets, reinforcing Bitcoin as an option during times of instability, and breaking important technical levels, such as the US$ 94,000 resistance, attracted more buyers.

Gold performed steadily or slightly positively, reacting to the same macro conditions but in a more defensive manner, showing a convergence of narratives between the two assets, although with different price movements.

Analysts highlight that investors are returning to take more risks. “The ideal scenario continues, with the US labor market showing few signs of fragility and US inflation remaining stable. It seems that risk has become a viable option across all sectors, from stocks to precious metals, the dollar, and even cryptocurrencies.”

The “real asset trade”

While Bitcoin tries to regain ground, gold and silver have entered euphoria mode. In recent days, gold hit record prices above US$ 4,600 per ounce, and silver broke US$ 90 for the first time, also at a historic high.

This movement matters for Bitcoin for two reasons. First, because it reinforces the view that the world is buying “protection” and “scarcity” at the same time, a basket that includes precious metals and, for part of the market, also BTC. Second, because the metals rally has been fueled by factors that also tend to favor cryptocurrencies, such as geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of lower interest rates.

Gold jumped 65% in 2025, while Bitcoin was almost flat. There is room for BTC to perform better than gold this year. Although gold and Bitcoin sometimes move together, their long-term correlation is only slightly positive.

Behind all this, the variable that links gold, silver, and Bitcoin is the same: the direction of US interest rates. The more moderate inflation reading reinforced at least the maintenance of interest rates in the short term, with higher chances of rate cuts throughout the year, which tends to improve sentiment for alternative assets. This is because the premium on safer assets, like Treasury bonds, falls with lower interest rates, leading investors to accept more risk for better returns.

Money returning to ETFs

The second driver is the return of inflows to US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Data shows that ETFs recorded US$ 753.7 million in net inflows on Tuesday (13), the highest since October 7.

“Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs represent a resurgence of institutional demand, signaling that investors are reallocating capital aggressively after a period of caution and risk reduction at the end of last year.”

In movements like this, the impact is not just psychological; it is real. When inflows occur, the vehicle needs to adjust, which often creates buying pressure that the market feels almost immediately, especially after a period of weakness and more selective liquidity.

The flows reflect greater macroeconomic clarity, marked by the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data — which showed high but declining inflation — and progress in legislation regarding the structure of the cryptocurrency market in Washington.

Year-end adjustments

December and early January also carry their own dynamics. At the end of 2025, Bitcoin closed “wounded” and still well below October’s high and closer to US$ 90,000, with analysts describing the market as structurally strong but tactically fragile.

At the turn of the year, the market usually undergoes a “housekeeping” phase that mixes tax considerations and risk management. In various jurisdictions, many investors seek to reduce their tax bill by realizing losses before the fiscal year-end, a strategy known as tax-loss harvesting.

The logic is simple: since tax is levied on realized capital gains, part of the market sells assets that are in the red in December to “lock in” the loss and offset gains from other investments in the same year.

This movement can increase selling pressure near the end of the year even when the asset’s thesis hasn’t changed, and then create space for rebuys and rebalancing in January, when demand returns and liquidity improves.

Beyond the tax factor, managers and traders rebalance and reduce risk to close the period with more “lean” portfolios, adjusting derivatives positions, recalibrating collateral, taking profits, and reducing leverage in more volatile assets.

In crypto, this tends to amplify oscillations because the market has a large participation of futures and options: when risk appetite returns at the beginning of the year, rebalancing these structures can become additional fuel for the rally, especially if it coincides with new inflows (such as via ETFs) and a more favorable macro backdrop.

Geopolitics on the radar

Besides the macro scenario, international news has served as a trigger for the narrative of Bitcoin as an alternative in turbulent times. “In the last week and a half, we have witnessed several global events that remind investors why Bitcoin was created in the first place.”

The collapse of Iran’s fiat currency, the subpoena of the Federal Reserve chairman by the US Department of Justice, and recent events in Venezuela were cited as significant “catalysts” for BTC.

Despite geopolitical news involving Venezuela and Iran, the market shows no concern. Instead, it leans toward the expectation that the US is reaffirming its leadership on the global stage. Oil has gained a geopolitical premium, but overall, the market has remained resilient. Abundant liquidity and the renewed global leadership lead to outperformance by the US and a risk-on global environment.

Conclusion

Ultimately, Bitcoin’s rebound is less of a “momentary rally” and more the result of the convergence of ongoing forces, with the market re-pricing protection and scarcity amid uncertainties. Record highs in gold and silver also support the narrative, and institutional capital reappears more strongly. If this combination continues, the return to US$ 100,000 may finally become a reality.