Bitcoin at the technical crossroads: Analyzing the death cross pattern and key price levels

Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $90.96K with a 24-hour decrease of 0.13%. However, behind this figure lies a noteworthy technical warning from analysts: if Bitcoin fails to regain the $90,000 level before the weekly candle closes, a dangerous chart pattern called the “dead cross” (dead cross) will form on the weekly timeframe, potentially pushing the price down to $67,000.

Warning signals from the weekly chart

Analyst Gamza Khanzadaev has identified a concerning technical setup: the interaction between the 50-week and 200-week moving averages is creating selling pressure. The dead cross pattern appears when the short-term moving average crosses below the long-term moving average, signaling a significant shift in momentum and possibly initiating a prolonged downtrend.

Why is this pattern considered important? Historically, similar technical signals in Bitcoin trading have been associated with substantial declines. The 2022 bear market is a prime example, where similar warnings led to deep corrections. However, it’s important to note that not all such signals result in severe outcomes; some are “bull traps” where the price quickly recovers without significant decline.

Price map from top to bottom: Key support levels

According to analysis, if Bitcoin cannot break above $90,000, a series of support zones will be tested sequentially:

$86,000 level – The most critical line of defense: this is considered the main barrier against further sharp declines. If trading volume this week is weak, the price could easily break through this point, opening the way for additional selling pressure.

$80,000 zone – Psychological level: this is an important mental threshold. Losing support here could trigger a domino effect, prompting traders to start panic selling.

$74,111 level – Past accumulation zone: identified from previous accumulation phases and Fibonacci retracement calculations, this level represents a strongly supported accumulation area. It could be considered a long-term hold zone.

Target $67,000 – Worst-case scenario: if the above support levels are consecutively broken, this decline target could materialize. This level indicates a significant drop relative to recent highs.

The role of trading volume in confirming signals

An often overlooked but crucial factor is trading volume. Currently, Bitcoin’s 24-hour trading volume is $825.33M. The question is: is this volume sufficient to confirm any downward trend?

If Bitcoin’s price falls to support levels but volume remains low, it could be a “bull trap” — a decline without genuine selling pressure. Conversely, if volume spikes significantly as the price drops below $86,000, it would strongly confirm a bearish trend.

Market context in 2025 and its significance for traders

The year 2025 presents unique market conditions with clearer regulations in major economies, increasing institutional adoption, and global interest rate fluctuations. Bitcoin is not just an asset but also a “barometer” for the sentiment of the entire altcoin market.

The importance of technical analysis in this context is that it provides a roadmap for traders. However, it’s essential to emphasize that technical analysis is not fortune-telling. It’s a tool to understand market psychology and identify key price levels, not to predict the future with certainty.

What are moving averages and why are they important?

Moving averages smooth out historical price data, allowing traders to see the underlying trend amid short-term volatility. The 50-week moving average reflects medium-term sentiment, while the 200-week moving average is often seen as a long-term trend indicator.

When the short-term moving average crosses above the long-term, it’s called a “golden cross” (giao cắt vàng), a bullish signal. Conversely, when it crosses below, it’s a “dead cross” (giao cắt tử thần) — a bearish signal. However, it’s important to remember these indicators are lagging; they confirm that a trend has started rather than predict it.

Therefore, experts often combine moving averages with other tools such as momentum indicators, on-chain activity analysis (phân tích hoạt động trên chuỗi), and support/resistance levels to build a more comprehensive picture.

How to invalidate warning signals

To invalidate this bearish scenario, Bitcoin needs to break above the $90,000 resistance before the weekly candle closes. If this happens with increasing trading volume, it will be a clear sign that the bullish trend remains alive. A “golden cross” would form instead of a “dead cross,” completely changing the technical outlook.

Additionally, macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy decisions, economic data from major countries, or positive regulatory news could shift market sentiment and invalidate the bearish scenario.

Risk management guidance for traders

Even if technical analysis is highly likely to be correct, it’s not a guarantee. Wise traders should:

• Set stop-loss orders at key resistance or psychological levels to minimize potential losses
• Carefully consider trading volume when prices reach critical levels to confirm signals
• Combine fundamental analysis with technical analysis, avoiding reliance on a single tool
• Manage position sizes according to personal risk tolerance
• Monitor changes in market sentiment through sentiment indicators and on-chain data

Conclusion

Bitcoin is currently at a crucial technical crossroads. The weekly dead cross pattern is not certain, but it warrants attention for traders planning their strategies. The levels of $90,000, $86,000, $80,000, $74,111, and $67,000 will be key checkpoints in the coming weeks.

While history shows Bitcoin has previously overcome similar technical warnings and recovered, there’s no guarantee it will do so again. The combination of high leverage, widespread derivatives products, and volatile market psychology can amplify any price movement.

Remember, technical analysis provides a roadmap, not a guarantee. It’s a supporting tool, not the sole basis for investment decisions. Proper risk management, discipline, and patience remain the key factors for success in crypto trading.