Macroeconomic factors and technical signals determine Bitcoin's future — predicted price targets

Although the cryptocurrency market attracts investors with promises of growth, the reality presents a more complex picture. Analyzing how to predict cryptocurrency growth requires in-depth research of both technical indicators and macroeconomic conditions. Recent forecasts suggest that Bitcoin may soon enter a correction phase, and traders should prepare for increased volatility.

Technical signals indicate possible declines

Current technical analysis of Bitcoin based on key market indicators paints a pessimistic picture. A technical analysis expert noted that the gains observed earlier this year have already lost momentum. Indicators such as the 50-period moving average (EMA50), MACD crossovers on monthly charts, and bearish RSI divergence all signal market weakness and an approaching bear market.

Considering these signals, the analyst predicts that Bitcoin may first retest the weekly EMA50 level before a more significant drop occurs. The projected price ranges for the coming months are from $104,000 to $98,000, after which a decline to the $74,000–$68,000 range may follow. Looking further into the future, by Q4 2026, the price could sharply fall to between $54,000 and $60,000.

The current Bitcoin price is around $90,740, placing the asset at a critical decision point for investors planning short positions.

Macroeconomic pressure reinforces the bearish outlook

Deteriorating economic conditions are a primary catalyst for the forecasted decline. The U.S. economy has shown signs of stagnation since early 2025, with weakening labor market data and confusing inflation indicators that financial institutions seem to ignore.

The Federal Reserve’s actions, particularly delayed interest rate cuts, further complicate the situation. Instead of easing policies, the market remains under pressure, making assets like Bitcoin susceptible to correction. Additionally, the planned interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan and the settlement of billions of dollars in spot assets will create additional pressure on financial markets.

What is the real path to growth?

Despite the pessimistic forecasts in the near term, the analyst suggests a long-term recovery path. After a bear phase, Bitcoin could eventually rebound to around $89,000 in 2027. Then, the cryptocurrency could accelerate to $110,000 before ultimately reaching a target price of $160,000.

To predict cryptocurrency growth, investors must understand that macroeconomic optimism should not obscure short- and medium-term risks. Those who ignore the possibility of a bear market in the $100,000–$125,000 range may regret this decision in a one-year perspective.

The main takeaway is that Bitcoin market analysis requires an integrated approach combining technical signals with macroeconomic realities, especially decisions by central banks, which ultimately determine the developmental path of the most important cryptocurrency.